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Reply to "Assuming they are all independent separate events, the probability of receiving at least one acceptance is 33% if you ap"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous] You can’t do the math without knowing the factors, and you have no idea what the factors are for an individual applicant.[/quote] Weather forecasts don’t wait to measure every gust of wind to predict rain—they model with temperature and pressure alone. Admission odds can be modeled with GPA and SAT, even if extracurriculars and essays aren’t known.[/quote] [/quote] You can keep claiming that, but it does not make it so. You need to know the odds one one thing happening to know the odds of it happening in multiple tries. Your weather example, you admit, uses actual data. You have no comparable data for an individual applicant. You don’t. You can’t. Game theory is a terrible - make that useless - way to develop an application strategy.[/quote]
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