Reply to Assuming they are all independent separate events, the probability of receiving at least one acceptance is 33% if you ap

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
WRT an individual applicant, whose likelihood could be [b]0% or 100% at any one college[/b].[/quote]
There is a 100% likelihood of an applicant being between 0% to 100%, so that is quite a meaningless understanding of probability.

Probability is about trying to quantify uncertainty. The more complete the model, the lower the error range/standard deviation. So sure, if someone had a line of sight on acceptances based on SAT+GPA+ ECs they would have a better model than someone with just a line of sight on SAT+GPA.

But the only public data that can be modelled comes from Naviance (school level SAT+GPA) and CDS (overall acceptances accurate, SAT+GPA based on those reporting). For those who are so inclined, they can calculate their probabilities of rejection from each and multiply them.

I think the third interpretation from the math for me is very clear, if applying to reaches, apply to a whole bunch of them , it will improve your chances of acceptance to at least one. Applying only to say Harvard is quite meaningless.

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