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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Following the linked article through to the WICHE report I eventually found this: https://www.wiche.edu/resources/report-u-s-high-school-graduates-will-peak-next-year-then-most-states-will-see-steady-declines-through-2041/#:~:text=Eight%20states%20will%20see%20significant,decline%20in%20high%20school%20graduates.

Interesting section here suggests (at least to me) that several state public universities will increasingly become receiving jurisdictions for college students (and DC will become a sending jurisdiction). I wouldn’t be too mad to send a child to a state university in California, Michigan, New York, or Illinois.

Regional variation. The distribution of the decline in high school graduates will vary across states. Compared to the last year of reported data in 2023, most U.S. states (38) will see losses in the number of high school graduates through 2041. Eight states will see significant enrollment declines of more than 20% and five of the nation’s largest states by population — California (-29%), Illinois (-32%), Michigan (-20%), New York (-27%), and Pennsylvania (-17%) — will account for three-quarters (75%) of the decline in high school graduates. Meanwhile, nine of 17 states in the South will see gains or no change, and gains in some of those states will be significant, such as Washington, D.C. (+31%), Tennessee (+15%), South Carolina (+14%), and Florida (+12%).[/quote]
Other interesting tidbits from that article:

Suburban and rural HS grads will increase, while urban areas will decrease.
Hispanic and multiracial grads will increase, while all other groups will decrease.[/quote]

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