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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]This is how Intrade performed on 2008: http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php Clearly stronger than Rasmussen. Since Intrade has Obama with a 65% chance of winning, I assume you'll accept that.[/quote] of course intrade is accurate the date before the election. duh. it is looking at the most recent polls. intrade fluctuates with the polls, and is a week or so behind the movement. I assume we will see intrade get closer and closer if the polls remain tight. and intrade is not polling, it is just people making bets based on the latest valuable data. Also intrade was way off in 2000. regardless, Rasmussen WAS very accurate in 2008. not really in dispute.[/quote]
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