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[quote=Anonymous]Fortunately, SCHEV is awesome with data.  So let’s look at what it says. (Spoiler alert: it says Op is full of cr*p)

https://research.schev.edu/TransferReports/232946/Northern-Virginia-Community-College

NVCC had 4,758 students transfer to a 4 year college in 22-23 (last year SCHEV reports). So OP is right.  That’s a lot. But, to a **state flagship**, where they are*in better shape than their peers*? Not so much.

First, it’s worth nothing noting than NVCC transfer to 4 year schools are close to 50/50 in terms of male/female ration. Interesting because almost 60% of college students are women.  Also, interesting the students who transfer are much more likely to be POC (over 3000, or more than 60%).

The VAST majority (2888 students, or more than 60%) went to GMU. Makes sense. If the decision is partly financial, kids can live at home. Good school. Selective?  Not so much, with a 90% acceptance rate. Next highest schools:

VCU: 385, or 8%

Private schools (aggregated): 381/ 8%. 
Top private schools were Marymount (102) and Liberty (131).  Also, 80 went to GWU, which is the only surprise in the data for me (is there an NVCC-GW pipeline program?)  And 1 went to U Richmond. None of the other private colleges listed were T-anything/ remotely competitive entry)

VT: 330 or 7% of NVCC transfers (SCHEV does not specify which school- engineering vs business vs arts and science, so it’s hard to determine how impressive this is).

JMU: 199 or 4%
ODU: 178 or 4%

UVA:  184 students, or 4% of the transfers 
WM: 39 students, or less than 1% of the transfers.

The rest were scattered at between 9 and 60 kids per  school among the second and third tier VA state schools.

So, if you use the most generous interpretation in OP’s and consider UVA, WM and VT to all be “flagships,” 553 of 4758 transfers, or 11.6%, ended up there.

Is 11.6% of transfers being admitted to one of the top 3 VA state schools “many”? Given that there is a guaranteed transfer program/pathway and it’s not competitive entry I’d say no.

Either OP is wrong because almost 90% NVCC kids can’t meet the guaranteed transfer requirements of a VA “flagship,” (which aren’t that onerous) or OP is wrong because the almost 90% of the kids who go on for a 4 year degree don’t want to transfer to UVA/ WM/ VT.  Either way, 89% of the kids from NVCC who go on for a 4 year degree do not go to UVA/ WM/ VT. Or a flagship in another state for that matter.

And except for GW and the one kid at Richmond, the schools they end up at are weaker or much weaker  than VT/ WM/UVA

I have no idea what OP means by saying NVCC transfers end “in better standing” than their HS peers who went directly to one of these colleges vs transferring in.

But again, SCHEV to the rescue.

UVA’s 2nd year retention rate of NVCC transfer students is 89-94% vs 96%+ of traditional freshmen.
86-87% of transfers from NVCC to UVA complete their degree in 4 years at UVA +2 at NVCC, so 6 years total. UVA’s 6 year graduation rate is 94% for all students.

VT averages a 90-93% 2nd year retention rate for NVCC transfers, which is in line with traditional freshmen retention rate.  Its 2+4 NVCC transfer graduation rate is 84-86%, and its 6 year graduation rate is 87% for all students.

WM has a 88-100% 2nd year retention rate for NVCC transfers , (but small sample size). Traditional freshmen have a retention rate of 93-95% at WM.  The 2+4 graduation rate of NVCC transfer is 83-87%. WM’s 6 year graduation rate is 92% for all students.

I’m not sure where PP gets better standing, but NVCC transfers are not more likely to stick with it and graduate.

(Something is clearly off with the 2019-2020 due to COVID, so I threw that out. Forr example, it says WM retained 108% of NVCC students that year??)

https://research.schev.edu/feedback/transfer/TR04.asp

TL;DR: the data says community college students are unlikely to end up at the state flagship or colleges that are similarly selective. Those that do are slightly more likely to drop out and are less likely yo get a degree.

So, OP, I showed my work. Please show yours for:
1. “Many” transferring from cc to flagships, and 2. “In better standing”. How so?  And based on what data?  Remembering that transfer credits coping in as pass/fail. You can bring in the credits, not the grade, so no inflated GPA.

Please explain your rationale for your broad assertions OP. With links to your data.

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