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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]UVA accepted 4 kids from our private class of 250. All had 4.0uw(or close to it), highest standardized scores (35 ACT) and very well-rounded.  They are picking off the best of the best from the DMV.  Some publics have 600 kids per class in UMC educated areas and the few accepted from those classes are cream of the crop.

I have seen it’s easier to get into U Mich at a lot of big public NoVA HS for slightly less tier than it is to get into UVA. Everyone wants the in-state tuition.  So many more kids apply from VA to UVA. My kid and his friends did not even apply to U Mich, but they all applied to UVA, WM, VT and a bunch of Ivies.[/quote]

Sure, but this is now. Currently it is super competitive. The question is what will it look like in the future when there aren't enough kids applying with 4.0 UW but UVA still needs 2/3 Virginians. [/quote]

You’re drumming on and on about a single factor, but you’re missing the bigger picture entirely. First of all most studies indicate that while there will be enrollment decline, the Top 50 elite schools will actually have increased demand, that includes UVA UNC and Mich. Further you are not considering the effects of internal migration in the US. The hundreds of thousands that have moved to Florida and Texas in the last decade will propel further demand of the in state flagships. Massive immigration is also going to be a factor in the overall equation. The Top instate flagships have endowments so large they can weather any ten year downturn in enrollment but no they are going to have a problem filling their classes. It’s the tuition dependent schools with small endowments that are going to feel the impact of the enrollment cliff. Indeed We’ve already seen many small schools close and there are probably others coming soon. [/quote]

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