Reply to When will the cost of college flatten out?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The college income premium is shrinking and thanks the the enormous cost of college and the debt requires, the wealth premium is shrinking even faster.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2021/january/college-degrees-more-wealth

I think  the "everyone needs to go to college" mantra goes away and more people start to focus on cost it will either come down or expensive schools will have even more exaggerated barbell distributions as the middle and upper middle class opt for more affordable options [/quote]

we need to return to offering more VoTech options in HS---let the kids who would do better on a HVAC/Electrical/AutoMechanics/Etc explore those options for half their days in HS.  Stop making them take thru Algebra 2 and let them take a more practical Statistics/math class that they might actually use (an intensive course in excel and stats perhaps).  They kids would be happier, better self esteem and more importantly starting on a path to what they ultimately will do.  
We need people in these areas and not everyone is college material.  Many kids are frustrated in HS with the academics and would do much better with hands on courses like this.  If they did this, then they might be 1 year of training away from a great job when they graduate HS

[/quote]

In theory, this sounds like a great idea.  However, if you read various articles about the rise of AI and tech, even these jobs are not as safe as you might imagine.

Electric cars have way fewer moving parts and no oil changes, so there is no need for any routine maintenance.  The demand for auto technicians will drop, however, [b]the auto technicians needed will now need much higher skills.  [/b]They will need to understand electric battery technology and chemistry, understand the computer systems driving the cars, etc.  About the only "old" technology will be the tires...although even tires are being improved so that you almost never get a flat.

Supposedly, only like 10,000 new plumber jobs will be created over the next 10 years.  I gather that is completely new jobs, but doesn't take into account that the average age of existing plumbers is high and all those folks will need to be replaced.  Still, 10,000 over 10 years is really nothing considering the economy creates millions of jobs each year.

Supposedly new HVAC systems will have AI and IoT technology embedded.  Many existing problems that you currently need an HVAC technician to fix will be diagnosed and sometimes self-corrected and / or the homeowner will be provided instructions on how to fix the systems themselves.[/quote]

Not really. Electric motors are much simpler than internal combustion engines. There are no real transmissions which are complex and require skilled mechanics. Even batter packs aren't that complex, they are just very dangerous and will most likely be considered disposable for that reason. As far as computer knowledge, electric cars have the same OBD ports that ice cars have   [/quote]

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