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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The shutdown is unlikely.  The far right that Gaetz leads, that is taking the hard stance, is only about 10% of the party.  They can posture all they want, but they do NOT have the power to oust McCarthy as Speaker without getting a lot more support from the mainstream Conservatives.

[b]If McCarthy can come to a compromise solution that the majority of the party can live with[/b], even if the hard-liners don't, he will keep the government open.  It remains to be seen if he can do that, but I expect that there will be a series of bipartisan CRs that will kick the can down the road long enough to get a bipartison budget passed, probably sometime in early 2024.  But it will happen and McCarthy will not lose his speakership.  There is literally NO ONE that the hard-liners will liek that can conceivably win the Speakership.  So, they have to put up with a Speaker that the mainstream Conservatives will support, like McCarthy.  They will get concessions, but they will never get someone to toe their unreasonable line.[/quote]

He already did. The spending cuts that everyone agreed to when the debt limit was raised where the compromise. He's trying to pretend that didn't happen and cut further. He's counting on the democrats not having a spine, which is usually a good bet (remember when Biden refused to negotiate on the debt ceiling).[/quote]

That's not completely true.  McCarthy said at the time that that round of compromise was intended to be the first step to get through the debt limit impasse.  He said at the time that further cuts would need to be considered when the budget debate came up, which it is now.

If the Democrats really thought that that one round of cuts was going to be sufficient to get through every impasse, they were and are pretty naive.  Everything in Congress unless explicitly spelled out with a period of agreement  is for the current debate only.  This is why some discussions say things like no further cuts until &lt;date&gt;.  If there is no limit discussed and documented at the time of the agreement, then it is assumed to be the current agreement, to be renegotiated the next time.
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