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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]There are 75,000 plus kids each year with 1500 or higher SAT scores and ACT equivalents with 4.0+ GPAs.

[b]How many available seats in the top 30 or 40 schools.[/b]  Plus they have to take athletes, big donors kids, URM, etc.

So for those 75,000 kids it becomes a crap shoot. [/quote]
I was curious about this question, so I did a brief Google search.  I used a Reddit page for T30 and googled the other schools.  Most numbers are for the incoming class of 2022 (graduating class of 2026), for some schools this was difficult to find so I used 2021. To the best of my knowledge, I tried to find actual enrolled numbers (not admitted).

For just T30, I'm arriving at 72,000 actually enrolled freshmen. Expanding this to T40 would probably bring it to at least 90,000 (if there are big schools in there.)  It's not clear that the term "crap shoot" is entirely accurate.  Bard defines a crap shoot as:

"In the game of craps, the most common definition of a crap shoot is a roll of the dice that results in a 7 or 11. These rolls are the only ones that result in a win on the first roll, and they have a probability of 16.67%."

The formatting for this is going to look terrible, but I don't know how to get this better:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ApplyingToCollege/comments/12wuzjv/t30_us_news_ranking_average_from_1984_to_2023/		
	School	Incoming Class	
1	Harvard	1661	https://features.thecrimson.com/2018/freshman-survey/makeup-narrative/
	Princeton	1500	https://admission.princeton.edu/apply/admission-statistics
3	Yale	1578	https://admissions.yale.edu/sites/default/files/class_profile_2022_fall.pdf
4	Stanford	1736	https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/stanford-university-admissions-rate-17827027.php#:~:text=Of%20the%2056%2C378%20applicants%20for,from%2051%25%20the%20previous%20year.
5	MIT	1139	https://admissionsight.com/mit-freshman-class-size-2/
6	Duke	1738	https://admissionsight.com/duke-freshman-class-size/
	Caltech	235	https://admissionsight.com/caltech-freshman-class-size/
8	Columbia	1560	https://undergrad.admissions.columbia.edu/apply/process/class-profile
	UChicago	1729	https://collegeadmissions.uchicago.edu/apply/class-2026-profile
	Penn	2417	https://admissions.upenn.edu/admissions-and-financial-aid/what-penn-looks-for/incoming-class-profile
11	Dartmouth	1229	https://admissionsight.com/dartmouth-class-of-2025-statistics/
12	Northwestern	2039	https://admissions.northwestern.edu/docs/class-of-2026-facts-and-figures.pdf
	JHU	1310	https://apply.jhu.edu/fast-facts/
14	Cornell	3765	https://admissionsight.com/cornell-freshman-class-size/
	Brown	1719	https://www.brown.edu/news/2022-09-02/2026-numbers
16	Rice	1210	https://news.rice.edu/news/2022/o-week-2022-rice-set-welcome-incoming-class-2026-aug-14
	WashU	1858	https://admissions.wustl.edu/life-at-washu/our-students/
18	Vanderbilt	1600	https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/vandybloggers/2022/03/class-of-2026-regular-decision-summary-statistics/#:~:text=We%20are%20honored%20to%20receive,are%20not%20able%20to%20admit.
	Notre Dame	2050	https://ndsmcobserver.com/2022/08/notre-dame-sees-increase-in-selectivity-for-class-of-2026/
20	Emory	1850	https://apply.emory.edu/discover/facts-stats/index.html
	UC Berkeley	6726	https://opa.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/uc_berkeley_cds_2022-23_may_2second_release.xlsx
22	Georgetown	1585	https://www.georgetown.edu/about/key-facts/
23	UVA	4043	https://admission.virginia.edu/admission/statistics
	CMU	1700	https://www.cmu.edu/piper/news/archives/2022/august/first-year-orientation.html
25	UCLA	6462	https://admission.ucla.edu/apply/freshman/freshman-profile
26	UMich-Ann Arbor	7050	https://obp.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/pubdata/factsfigures/freshprof_umaa.pdf
27	UNC-Chapel Hill	4440	https://admissions.unc.edu/explore/our-newest-class
28	Wake Forest	1379	https://admissions.wfu.edu/facts/
	Tufts	1698	https://now.tufts.edu/2022/08/31/tufts-welcomes-undergraduate-class-2026
30	USC	3420	https://customsitesmedia.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2022/10/07155342/First-Year-Student-Profile-2022_FNL15.pdf
	[b]Total Enrolled	72426[/b]
[/quote]

DP: I agree and wouldn’t use crap shoot to describe the current situation. However, the odds are low for any T30 school because as research has revealed (and SC case), approximately 40% of seats at any highly selective school is filled by ALDC applicants. Also, as the PP noted, you also have to consider the number of 1st gen and URM seats. Of course these populations will overlap but if you do not fit into any of those categories and in some cases you need to fit into two or more, your looking at a 5% chance of admittance.[/quote]

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