Reply to What is the 5% chance at 42 based on?

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[quote=Anonymous]PP, I don't think that people are in denial about the consequences of age (at least, I'm not). That is not the point. What is confusing to me, at least, is the MATH of all of this. The stats that are being thrown around are confusing to me, and to the OP.

I do think there is a point where your chances of natural conception if you have "unexplained infertility" are close to your chances of conceiving through IVF, and every couple has to decide how close they feel to that line. That's a separate issue.

The question under debate currently, however, is that when we talk about a 5 percent chance of 40 to 44-year olds giving birth in any given cycle, are we talking about ALL WOMEN, or ALL WOMEN UNDERGOING FERTILITY PROCEDURES. Those are two different groups of women. I was under the impression that this stat was derived from ALL WOMEN, which includes everyone from the most fertile woman in this country to a woman who has had 20 IVF procedures and finally strikes gold at age 40+

But because of the OP's good question, now I'm not so sure. Because, let's just say we're talking about the universe of "all women." Are women using donor eggs included? Because if so, one would expect that 5 percent figure to eventually start going up, because now women in that age range "appear" more fertile because they're giving birth. [/quote]

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