Reply to What is the 5% chance at 42 based on?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Of course women get pregnant at 42-44, but not many.

"Chances 'accumulate' for the future events but they don't for those in the past. so if the chance of conception per attempt is 5% and you do 20 attempts, at the beginning of those 20 attempts your chances are almost 70%. however, if you had 19 of those 20 attempts and nothing happened, you chances for something to happen on the 20th attempt are 5%."

If this were true, then 42-44 year olds would have little to no problem conceiving.  Just try for 20 months and you have a 70% chance of conceiving.  Yeah right.  That's a rarity.

Something is very wrong with the analysis on this thread.  I'm no statistician, but come on people.  We wouldn't need a fertility industry or donor eggs and there wouldn't be much worry about AMA at all.  Shoot, if all I had to do was try for a year or two, and 70% chance I'd get pregnant, no problemo, that sounds great, I didn't want to rush anyway.[/quote]

But I am a statistician. Which doesn't make me an expert on this topic, btw, but you do appear to have problems understanding how a large number of attempts can improve odds in your favor. Of course, the question of 5% didn't get an answer and the probability of success changes as time progresses, so calculation is a little bit more complicated. Also - 5% (wherever it came from) is an average rate. Your own probability might be significantly lower - or higher.[/quote]

You might be a statistician but your 70% figure is off, whether it is based on putting in bad numbers or whatever.  Of course large no. of attempts can improve odds, but I think about 99 out of 100 people would bet you the Romney $10,000 that women ages 42-44 do not have a 70% chance of conception after trying for 20 months.  That is 100% incorrect.[/quote]

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