Reply to What % return would you assume for next 20-25 years

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I assume 2 percent real and 2 percent inflation, so a 4 percent nominal return. [/quote]

lol

you are insane if you think the markets will have a 4% nominal return over 25 years..sure, a sector might, but you are letting your emotions get the best of you.[/quote]

Insane? No, I just have a good idea of international comparators. It is easy to look back after 120 years of American hegemony and think that things will necessarily continue to evolve in the same way.

The Japanese stock market was still 25 percent below the peak 30 years after the crash, and oir demographics look more like theeirs now than the US in the 1970s.

So a reasonable conservative assumption is that the stock market grows in line with nominal GDP, which is likely to be at around 4 percent nominal or two percent real. If it is higher, so much the better. But don’t look at US returns fron the last 50 or 100 years and assume that that is necessarily the way it is going to be.[/quote]

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