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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I agree OP.

Once the kids are out of college and we are ready to retire we can downsize to a lower COL and our expenses will plummet. I am estimating 50k a year for us as a couple. (And this is being pretty generous. We could swing it on $35.)

We will have either no mortgage, an extremely low one, or rent. We are modest people -- our biggest splurges are occasional travel and our kids.

So in my case let's say we need about 4k a month. Maybe a third will come from SS and a third from our retirement funds (about $1 mil) and a third from savings/profit from our house which we plan to sell (about 1 mil).

I think we'll be fine. And I think my kids will still get a little chunk of change when we die.

So for people/couples like me (not big spenders or lavish lifestyle) I would sat $2 mil plus SS.[/quote]

Can you live on that budget now? If so, ok. Otherwise, I wouldn’t count on “plummeting” expenses in a LCOL area unless you plan to lower your standard of living.

We moved to a “lower cost of living” area when we retired, and inflation has hit everywhere. Taxes are lower (but I couldn’t say that everywhere, obviously).  Services (plumber, haircuts, appliance repairs) were cheaper, but worker shortages are making them more expensive every day. Restaurants aren’t cheaper than DC and groceries are slightly cheaper, but not much. Things from big box stores are pretty much the same price everywhere. We could have bought a cheaper house, but it would be in a cookie-cutter subdivision with no trees that was a farm last year. A nice house/condo in a desirable neighborhood, much less near the water or Mountain View, etc, is expensive everywhere, and prices have doubled in the last few years. With WFH, nice cheap places aren’t cheap anymore. Some things are [u]more[/u] expensive — insurance (car and homeowners), utilities, and some odd things like dry cleaning or shoe repair. Remember you’ll have to pay for your own cell phone bill in retirement.

I just did some quick math and we spend almost $30,000 a year on taxes, insurance (car, home, health + deductibles), and utilities (cell, WiFi, electric/gas). Even if your costs are lower, are you really going to live on a $1,000 a month for everything else? That doesn’t include home maintenance, maintenance, groceries, travel, clothes, gifts for family, etc.

I realize that people do it all the time. In fact, [u]i[/u] have. But I worked my a** off for a long time so I never have to do that again. Which is why I ask about your current standard of living. If you live that way now, you’ll be fine. Just don’t expect to lower your cost of living dramatically in retirement by virtue of moving somewhere else. That magic place doesn’t exist in the 50 US states.

Not to mention it sounds like you’re double counting your home equity — there will be a good chunk invested in your new house (or the income will be spent on rent, which will be on top of that $4k a month).

If you haven’t visited a LCOL area recently, don’t count on a 2000 (or even 2010) COL. [/quote]

Maybe I am being too optimistic but I am helping pay for dementia care for my mom, which is a cost I won't bear in retirement, paying for college and paying for private school now.

I do not think I am double counting my home equity. Our house is about 1.5 mi now with a $300k mortgage. I hope/pray that in fifteen years we will have close to 1 mil net, and can put the rest towards a condo or small house with a small mortgage. Maybe this is crazy . . .[/quote]

Seems like you're mixing real and nominal dollars. I would think about what you could buy now if you sold this house now, assuming the mortgage was gone. Make a retirement budget in today's dollars.

You should be able to get pension and SS estimates in today's dollars. The SS estimates assume you'll keep working at the same income, but they have a tool where you can change some years to zero for a more accurate estimate if you're retiring early.

Bogleheads can help, firecalc allows you to input annual spending and one-time spending (I think, it's been a while). 
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