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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Seldom in risk assessments does anyone know the true probability!  [/quote]

Sorry I disagree, this is how casinos make money, and people who do actuarial risk assessment deal with large numbers of events and are unconcerned with any one individual result.  In this application process you ONLY care about the individual result, so traditional game theory for risk assessment is nearly useless.

[quote=Anonymous]This doesn’t mean that it’s not helpful to know that 10 schools with 10 % probability does not mean a 100% chance of acceptance![/quote]

Well it wouldn't be 100% even if you knew for certain you had a 1 in 10 everywhere https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/4260694/how-to-calculate-the-probability-of-an-event-with-10-chance-of-happening-occurs

[quote=Anonymous] Playing around with a reasonable range or probabilities can help create some reasonable expectations and some guidance in if it’s worth applying to an additional school.[/quote]

Again I disagree.  I think false application of this can and does create [b][i][u]un[/u][/i]reasonable[/b] expectations.  I have seen it happen again and again.  This is how real safeties get left off lists, because someone decides they have a high chance with a wide range of reaches and a few matches.

Stay away from bad math, and stick to R-M-S.[/quote]

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