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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Why are people on here suggesting that OP’s kid has as much as a 20% chance of getting into Stanford?  Her child has no standout ECs and no hooks, is coming from an affluent suburb and a school where dozens of kids will be applying to Stanford and similar. Her kid is not getting into Stanford, perfect stats notwithstanding, unless she writes a world class essay.  OP, I sincerely hope your child does not waste a SCEA or ED application on a HYPMS type school.  There are plenty of great schools looking for kids like yours, and now is a great time to start making a realistic list.

Mind you, my perfect stats DD ignored this advice a few years ago and did blow her SCEA on Stanford despite our advice to not go this route. She didn’t get in, nor did any of her other high stats/no hooks friends from our top public. The few who did were athletes, legacies, and URMs, all of whom also had high stats (our younger child is at Stanford now and is an athletic recruit). All these kids from my DD’s class have graduated or will graduate this year, and all are doing great. If your kid is in the top of their class at a top public here, they truly will thrive wherever they go. I know it’s hard to really understand this when dealing with the college application frenzy the first time, but it’s true. 
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All applicants collectively have a 2-6% chance of admissions. Each applicant individually has a different chance. I lurk on this board, and having done this for 25 years professionally, I think a kid with those stats has about 20% chance. Still very unlikely but different than the average. That’s actually really important to absorb … your DC can have all the stats in the world, and the chances rise from “cloudy with a chance of meatballs” only to “extremely unlikely.” [/quote]

This seems off base to me. Have you been in admissions for 25 years professionally? Have you seen the caliber of students applying last year and this year? I have. I don't think this student has a 20% chance with those stats, honestly. Maybe a few years ago. She would have to garner at least a few awards.  The collective average may be 2-6%, but most of the applicants have OP's stats or near them to begin with. So, I don't get how this (albeit amazing) kid would have a 20% chance.

I have the kid who got rejected SCEA from Yale. She had a national award, state award, regional awards in a variety of areas, NMSF, sports capt, club pres, 5s on APs, professional arts experience, exceptional musician, variety of ECs, super advanced math and from a top magnet. I know every kid is different, and OP's kid may have that thing Stanford wants to complete their class, but she really needs more for them to have a 20% chance of noticing her. Mine picked up a regional award, NMF and a national award during RD and was able to contact AOs w/ that, which is a big reason I think she got into 3 Ivies/T10 in RD. [/quote]

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