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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Many DC families have only stayed because they are underwater on their homes.  Once it rises, absent a good school, the middle class will flee DC again.[/quote]

Don't be such a silly.

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/DC-Washington/Capitol-Hill-home-value/r_121685/

People may be underwater in the greater Dumfries-Manassass metropolitan area, but most middle-class DC folks have plenty of equity in their houses..even those who bought during the bubble.[/quote]

Wrong.  Instead of cherry picking your stats, why don't you cite the chart for Washington, DC as a whole:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/DC-Washington/r_41568/

It's not just the "greater Dumfries-Manassass metropolitan area" that is underwater, but Washington, DC as well.[/quote]

You'll probably want to dig a bit further into that chart. The areas that were hard-hit by the suburban housing bubble are a) the well-heeled areas of DC where households are likely to be both wealthy, and have access to the good public schools (JKLM), or b) the ungentrified areas of DC east of the river, and in the far NE.  The middle-class parents who bought homes in places like Capitol Hill and elsewhere [b]even in the "bubble years"[/b] are unlikely to be seriously underwater. That's because most of the (relatively small decrease) in home values in DC proper have taken place in ungentrified neighborhoods where new residents with children are unlikely to have settled. Even in your cherry-picked example of Petworth, someone is unlikely to be underwater unless they bought between late 2005 and mid 2009. The strong neighborhoods like Capitol Hill have only increased in value since the peak of the peak. Pretty much anyone who bought at any time other than a six month period in 2006 has made money. And the rents have gone up sufficiently that those people could rent their houses tomorrow and cover their mortgage and maintenance.

You're fantasies of nervous "underwater" parents wishing they could leave is just wishful thinking. Which, come to think of it, is a bit sad.[/quote]

For example. We live in a house in DC that has doubled in value. Not exactly underwater.[/quote]

We bought in August 2006--a smidgen before the peak--and our house has gone up about 10%.

If we'd bought in Dumfries in 8/2006, we'd be down about 36%.  That means if I'd bought a $430k house it'd be worth about $274k.  *That's* what underwater means.

http://bit.ly/xsRuEJ[/quote]

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