Reply to Would you choose bond or "real 3%" investment if you were me?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]PP here - old thread, but relevant now as much as it was then (in case you just want to know the bottom line, they said the world bank real + 3 is just hard to beat, so go for it)

[url]https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=156274[/url][/quote]

Thanks PP for finding this thread for me ! This is perfect. And yes to others who asked: it is the World Bank CPI+real 3% option, no fee, and it is probably subsidized/guaranteed by something else. i dont have much doubts that it is extremely safe.

I thik i am going to put 100% of my bond allocation into it. My only doubt now is whether 90% stocks/ 10% Real 3% makes sense.. Maybe the real 3% is so good I should do 80/20 or 70/30 instead? WWYD?[/quote]

keep your allocation to 10%.  split the remaining 90% between the S&P and Russel 2k - you want to take full advantage of the last 2 months of the year where the market traditionally rises.  Keep an eye on the Fed decision regarding rates too.  You can always [self] correct the allocation every month, you just need to pay attention to what's going on and the calendar (you have the adjust the allocation before the final day of the month in order for the changes to be reflected the very next month).  So you've missed the opportunity to adjust for November but you can still adjust for December.[/quote]

Thanks ! I did change it right before nov 1st to 10% to the real 3%. From all of what you are saying i am assuming you also work at the Bank? May i ask your age and allocation :) ? And how long you have been invested the way you are? [/quote]

PP here (and also offered the clarifying post about the pension) - yes, I'm a fellow colleague and have been with the Bank for more than 22 years.  I'm in the new plan and when I started, we could only contribute 5% of our salary instead of the current 11%.  I was fortunate to have been able to make the additional contributions over 5 years during the "catch up period" that was part of the most recent pension reform.  I just turned 50 last month and hold a pretty senior position in the Bank.

I would have to go back and check for the exact information on my history of allocations, but roughly, I was about 50-50 between the S&P and the Emerging Market Index for the first 3-4 years of my career.  In the early to mid 2000s, I did switch over to roughly 50-50 S&P and Russell 2k, with the occasional 3% buffer (allocating to about 20% and bringing down the allocation in the Russell 2k).  I certainly got hit during the 2008 great recession but I got out of the S&P in October and put it all in the 3% from Oct. '08 to about Feb/March '09.  Since then I've been riding the S&P at 80-90% and a 10-20% in the Russell 2k.  I have really benefitted from this long bull market for sure.  Fellow colleagues (economists) seem not to have

I'm an active investor with pretty significant investment portfolios that we have outside the pension so I am constantly evaluating the allocation/investment elections every couple of months.  I've been 100% in the S&P since mid 2020.  This past August, I almost pulled back to allocate some into the 3%, but based on what i was reading (WSJ, Bloomberg, etc.) I chose to ride the small pullback to take advantage of the current market.  I'm lucky/fortunate that I'm now in a position that I could conceivably leave in the next couple of years (w/o even drawing on the pension until I hit 62, so I could let it continue to grow without additional contributions). I will likely reevaluate the allocation towards the end of this year and I do draw on a number of [domestic] economic prospects/outlook reports produced by the larger banks and investment houses to help guide my thinking.[/quote]

Hi PP I am the original poster and coming back to ask if you changed your allocation?  I am still at 60% SP500; 20% Russell; 10% emerging market and 10% real 3%. Wondering how to reallocate given fed recent decision[/quote]

I'm the PP (fellow WB colleague) who responded to you - I changed my allocation at the end of this past Jan. to the 100% real 3% option (so I got out of the S&P).  I did take a hit as the market dropped in Jan. (I really should have done the reallocation at the end of last Dec.) but it's fine as the real 3% is not too bad (translates to return of more than 10%) and I look at this from a longer term perspective - stave off the declines until the market settles and then get back into the S&P and possibly the Russell 2k.  At this point in my career/life, I am not taking aggressive positions in the emerging markets (I'm over 50 so getting a little conservative with the pension and frankly I just don't have the time to be as on top of this as I would like as my job is just off-the-charts busy and I'm likely to a resume hectic mission travel very soon).

The recent rate hike, and the planned 5-6 additional hikes haven't changed my thinking yet.  Waiting to see how the market reacts to future rate hikes and I need to read more about the bond options we have.  Will likely stay put for the next few months though.[/quote]

Thank you !!![/quote]

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