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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The person with the two long fact-based replies is spot-on.

PARTICULARLY with the following:

[quote]2. At no point throughout the Omi wave did hospitals go into "moderate" territory (let alone critical). [b]With case numbers dropping so dramatically it won't happen now, rates will be consistent.[/b][/quote]

First of all, this is simply not true.

Here's the CHATS alert system. It updates in real time and there's no way for me to share a screenshot, but as of Jan 20, I see Shady Grove, White Oak, Montgomery General and Holy Cross on red alert:

https://www.miemssalert.com/chats/Default.aspx?hdRegion=5

Second of all, to reiterate PP-- [b]hospitalizations lag infections, by 1-3 weeks[/b]. (And deaths lag hospitalizations.)

We (hopefully) are just coming off of our high plateau that lasted about 2.5 weeks*.

I expect hospitalizations to continue to climb for at least 2 more weeks. It's not over.

[u]That's the mind-bending thing about Omicron.[/u] It moves SO FAST, that [i]even before[/i] people are hospitalized and dying in high numbers, people who had mild or no infections are totally over it and planning their Spring Breaks.

They say, "See! It's almost over and not that many people died, our hospitals are fine" and... that's not how it works. I mean, I'd be thrilled to be wrong, but you can look at hospitalization and death data yourself. It's trending upward, not down, and it will continue to do so for a bit.

NYT says cases are down 43% from 2 weeks ago (we also currently have 5-10x the cases we had 5-6 weeks ago).

NYT also says deaths are up 57% from 2 weeks ago.

Again, I hope it doesn't end up as bad as it could. But it's simply [b]not over.[/b]

*I'm actually paying more attention to DC, since I live so close, but it's about the same.[/quote]

Excuse me!

I'm sorry. I was looking at Maryland numbers, not MoCo.

[b]MoCo cases are down 43%
MoCo hospitalizations are UP 87%[/b]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/maryland-covid-cases.html[/quote]

We talk so much about the pandemic continuing because of non-maskers and non-vaccer's.   In reality, it's going to last here because of people like this.   We have a basic lack of math and risk assessment in MoCo.   it's scary and disappointing (but not surprising).

When we talk about %'s, there are two important metrics:

1.   The % increase (check, the PP got that one)
2.   The raw #.    I can tell you numbers are up 300%, but what if it's going from 1 person to 3?   That's 300%, but my ability to do risk assessment tells me my actual risk hasn't increased much.

The numbers you report without context just have no value, but they scare people.   The pandemic will not end in MoCo because idiots like you don't understand math.

Additionally, you are misinterpreting.  In MoCo, hospitalizations are not skyrocketing. Not even close.   We are at (and continue to be at) stable levels.   The # of patients hospitalized WITH covid rises, but that reflects the spread of covid in the greater community.   This metric also tells me my risk of hospitalization is very low...and will continue to be so.

But you do you, or maybe take some basic math and stats courses.   Could really help all of us end the pandemic locally. [/quote]

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