Reply to For the "Close School" Crowd, help me with interpret these numbers...

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[quote=Anonymous]The person with the two long fact-based replies is spot-on.

PARTICULARLY with the following:

[quote]2. At no point throughout the Omi wave did hospitals go into "moderate" territory (let alone critical). [b]With case numbers dropping so dramatically it won't happen now, rates will be consistent.[/b][/quote]

First of all, this is simply not true.

Here's the CHATS alert system. It updates in real time and there's no way for me to share a screenshot, but as of Jan 20, I see Shady Grove, White Oak, Montgomery General and Holy Cross on red alert:

https://www.miemssalert.com/chats/Default.aspx?hdRegion=5

Second of all, to reiterate PP-- [b]hospitalizations lag infections, by 1-3 weeks[/b]. (And deaths lag hospitalizations.)

We (hopefully) are just coming off of our high plateau that lasted about 2.5 weeks*.

I expect hospitalizations to continue to climb for at least 2 more weeks. It's not over.

[u]That's the mind-bending thing about Omicron.[/u] It moves SO FAST, that [i]even before[/i] people are hospitalized and dying in high numbers, people who had mild or no infections are totally over it and planning their Spring Breaks.

They say, "See! It's almost over and not that many people died, our hospitals are fine" and... that's not how it works. I mean, I'd be thrilled to be wrong, but you can look at hospitalization and death data yourself. It's trending upward, not down, and it will continue to do so for a bit.

NYT says cases are down 43% from 2 weeks ago (we also currently have 5-10x the cases we had 5-6 weeks ago).

NYT also says deaths are up 57% from 2 weeks ago.

Again, I hope it doesn't end up as bad as it could. But it's simply [b]not over.[/b]

*I'm actually paying more attention to DC, since I live so close, but it's about the same.[/quote]

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