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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]The difference in coaching is not as significant as the difference in talent that is readily visible at this age.  I am talking about U13-14 top players and top teams.  I do see significant differences in talent among players on and among top teams.  You are simply wrong.[/quote]

If you are tallking about whether the best 14 year old is likely to be the best 15 year old then I agree.  But that's not what you're talking abouit.  You're suggesting that SYC is going to attract a lot of the top kids at U12/U13 and send a large number of those kids  to DCU.  That's where I strongly disagree.  Over three years, the better coaching team will win out.

[quote]And you are also wrong that where you are coached 8-12 doesn't matter.[/quote]

Huh?  Of course it does.  I'm the one arguing that coaching matters.  You are the one suggesting that it doesn't.  It matters at every age.  Good coaching will help your kid improve.  Bad coaching won't.  Whether they are 8 or 14.

[quote]I don't think anybody ought to be selecting clubs and teams based on league.  It is idiotic.  But I can understand why some players want to (1) join teams with other top players, because practices are where most development occurs and higher caliber teammates increase the probability of better development[/quote]

This is true.  Kids may well want to do this.  But they are making a mistake because the quality of coaching is the most important variable - more important than the caliber of the team or the competition (and in any case the competition isn't especially different).

[quote] and (2) want to play in leagues where they think the best players will be in their conferences (even if you don't have pro aspirations).  I also think the coach is important, but the variability is significant across top teams and clubs and is unpredictable YOY.  [/quote]

It's not perfectly predictable but there are clubs where you chance of getting good coaching are much higher than others.  I'm not going to name names so we keep this discussion theoretical.  But there are multiple clubs in this area where you are almost guaranteed of getting an excellent coach for at least two of your four crucial years, and you may well get luckier than that.[/quote]

1.  It is not a question of whether SYC is likely to get top kids for U13.  They already did. They already had a really good team.  It got better.  Same with Achilles and Bethesda.  A lot of these players had the opportunity to stay with or go to really good coaches, and simply passed.  I think you will see more of this.  This is what we are trying to explain - why might this happen more, or why might it happen less.  But it is already happening.[/quote]

Are you sure you can tell which kids have the most talent?

[quote]2.  It is also not a question of whether the travel soccer whisperers could get a bunch of talented but not stellar athletes to outplay a team of better players with mediocre coaching.[/quote]
That's not what I'm suggesting.  I'm suggesting that the best coaches develop the kids.  Sure that sometimes or even often turns into victories too.  But in this discussion I am arguing that good coaches help the kids become better soccer players individually.  And that, even if SYC gets good kids at 11 or 12 (something you seem to believe, but I think it is you who may be confusing team results with real talent here), better coaches elsewhwere will have coached kids who overtake them in talent.

[quote]3.  You did in fact say that it doesn't matter who goes where at 11, so yes, you did imply that coaching at earlier ages doesn't matter, [/quote]
I think you misunderstood what I was saying.  My point was that no matter whioch kid may appear more talented at 11 and no matter which team they go to, three years later the ones that went to the best coach will have overtaken them.

[quote]and no, you aren't "the one" arguing that really good coaching makes a difference - I already said as much. [/quote]
No - you keep saying that no matter how good the coach, the most talented kids will remain the most talented kids.  I am disagreeing with you.

[quote]It makes a tremendous difference.  But the differences among the coaches on top teams with top players will not offset the differences in talent when DCU makes selections.[/quote]

Yes it will.  It always does.  I have seen it happen.

[quote]  That is the only point we were discussing, and it is irrelevant for most kids in ECNL and MLS Next.  [/quote]
It is not irrelevant for them at all.  Any kid in the top 20% - which means the top 5 kids on any of those teams - has a chance to get to DCU.  I know this because I have seen it happen year after year.  The ones who get good coaching increase that chance dramatically.  The ones who don't, reduce it.

[quote]If you prove right, then all of those kids and parents whom you think made bad decisions can look back and say, you know what, despite the fact that we've had other kids/siblings/friends go to DCU, and despite the fact that we could have sent our kids to any club, we just didn't understand how to evaluate the quality or importance of coaching when we decided to send our kids somewhere other than ___ or ____.  Right now, I'd defer to their judgment unless and until they are proven wrong.[/quote]

You have one example of a kid who passed through VDA to DCU whose brother is now going to SYC.  But that's the exception that proves the rule.  I'm talking from experience, having watched what happens for several years now.  You will probably figure it out yourself as you watch what happens over the next three or four years.  The difference between us is that I have already done that - and I'm telling you want I learned.  You want to tell me you know it even though you have not trodden the path.  As Ron Rivera likes to say "Don't draw me a map if you haven;t been there."

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