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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I don't think a collapse is necessarily eminent.  But I do think that those of you who live and work in the city (any large U.S. city) are going to have the most difficulties.  We are back and forth to D.C. every few years.  But we own a home in a relatively rural area.  We live on the water.  We have plenty of land.  And my family knows how to hunt, fish, and farm.  We aren't surrounded by thousands of people.  Fewer people = Less risk of crime.  And our community wouldn't hesitate to help those in need.  There would be  no reason for people to start stealing....we would share with our neighbors.   We also have two large german Shepherd dogs.  And yes, we do own guns.

I'm honestly not worried.  I think things will get better in our country.  But I do think many people in America have lost the ability to take care of themselves and their families.  Just look at what happened after Katrina.  People waited assuming "the government" would help.  When the government didn't show up, people got desperate.  We were also affected by Katrina.  No one looted.  No one started breaking into homes.  We just quietly went about the business of rebuilding and helping our neighbors.  But again, we were far away from a large city.  And we were prepared to take care of ourselves without the help of the government.[/quote]Oh yeah, you and Hank Jr think you're going to do better than city folk - till you run out of bullets.  What is key to survival is social organization and community support - sounds like you may have it, then good for you.  But lots of parts of the country have it, too, and they ain't out in the country.  [/quote]

I tend to agree with you.  What's more likely to happen is--rather than a violent upheaval--a slow contraction of civilization from the far-flung exurbs back into the core.  As society gradually gets less wealthy, the transportation network at the margins will slowly begin to unravel.  Rail will become cheaper than truck, so our resources will go towards upgrading the railways.  Things will get more expensive in rural areas.  It'll probably become more expensive (and longer) to get from Harrisburg, VA to DC than it will from DC to NYC.  Living in someplace like Leesburg will increasingly be like living in Alaska.

Of course, this will increase the utility of living nearer the urban core, so the poor and folks with few prospects will likely be pushed out further to the exurbs in the same way they're now being displaced to the close-in suburbs of PG County now.   Eventually, things will look increasingly like a medieval city where the privileged few have places inside the "walls of the city", the poor are left to fend for themselves outside of it, and the rural folk eke out a living by bringing whatever they can coax out of the ground to the farmer's market outside the city walls.[/quote]

OMG this is such city dweller wishful thinking.  It's kind of sad that you think economic collapse is going to benefit your political agenda.  But if you recall where the poor went during the depression, it was not into the cities.[/quote]

I'm basing my analysis on dynamics that repeat throughout history.  I actually agree with you though that the restless, violent poor aren't going to be going into the cities.  Since that's where wealth will increasingly concentrate, it will remain one of the few areas of law and civilization.  In times of crisis, the wealthy will band together and divert a greater share of wealth to common defense.  Folks out in the hinterlands protected by nothing but a dog and a couple of guns will make a much softer target.

I'm curious:  in the coming anarchy, do you really imagine you'll be the only one with a gun?  It's a pretty common delusion, but I can never understand where it comes from.  You outta read some Cormac McCarthy sometime.[/quote]

Wow, where to start with the assumptions.  First, you assume I live in the hinterlands.  Nope.  Second, who said guns?  Not me.  Third, I don't know which is worse about you quoting The Road - that it's fiction, or that you totally forgot about how the cities are burned to rubble and run by looters who, he wrote, would eat your children.  Jesus, at least you could read the first few chapters.

[/quote]

I was actually thinking of "Blood Meridian", but that's neither here nor there:  the reason they call it a "collapse" of society is that it falls inward as it falls.  Long before the city collapses, you'll either be eaten or used as recreational sex toy to boost the morale of the local warlord's men.[/quote]

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