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Reply to "What is truly going on with the DC area real estate market, please explain? "
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Prices are up in almost every city nationwide. DC actually underperforms the median by this metric. Explanations: 1. Bubble (happened in 94, 06, etc...we're overdue for one) 2. Covid panic buys - people have fled apts/condos and that puts too much demand on the SFH market, once the vaccine is widespread, the pendulum will reverse 3. Hyperinflation on the horizon and everyone wants to buy hard assets; property is emotionally popular despite the fact that property tax hurts real estate more so than other assets Personally I think it's equal parts 1, 2, and 3 above. The X factors are: 1. Work from home. This is a real trend and workers will have extreme flexibility to choose their home city from now on. Where will everybody want to live? How much will taxes, weather, etc be a factor? 2. Political pressure as more millennials are locked out of home ownership. We know from history that the smaller the % of homeowners is, the more hostile the politics become towards homeowners. You can see this manifest in the YIMBY movements in California, property tax laws in Texas (with one homeowner exemption applied to owner occupied property only), and efforts to dramatically raise property taxes. My prediction here is that the degree to which WFH is embraced by the Fortune 500 and all desirable employers will shock people, especially older workers who don't understand that tech changed the employer-employee power balance. As to where people will move, that I have no idea. As to #2, I think local policies will become increasingly hostile, quickly, to non-owner occupied properties. American voters will not tolerate what happened in Vancouver and Toronto to happen here. In this sense, there is a lot of common ground between BLM and the Trump base.[/quote] This is funny to me. You basically just picked the things you wanted because you hope it works that way. Foreclosures and a bubble aren't happening. They haven't happened even though you've been calling for it since 2015. As for WFH...tell me, how is tech/Fortune 500 embracing WFH? Facebook already said if you choose to work outside of Silicon Valley (not even WFH just out of their regional preference) they will dock your pay. Amazon is moving forward with a 35,000 square 2nd headquarters in the DMV ready to open in 2022/2023. Financial companies have been caught trying to buy up vaccines to force traders back to the floors. So again - where is your huge WFH movement? I think we'll see this in extremely small (read under 500 employees) companies. The kind that could barely afford the office space and had very few workplace benefits in the first place. Maybe even a few high-quality tech companies like Salesforce. But big ones? Like Goldman, Deloitte, Facebook, Google, Amazon. Not a chance. [/quote]
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