Reply to MOCO Executive Order No. 087-20

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Reply to "MOCO Executive Order No. 087-20 - Effective Date 8/5/2020"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I am a data scientist.  I work closely with medical colleagues.  I have been following Gayles and his actions very closely.   There are a lot of questionable ways of operating.  The restrictions on soccer actually started weeks ago with a minor "update" to an order, but he swiftly put a cease and desist to Sam Soccer with no warning after approving.    At our last 2 practices, we have seen police arrive to watch for 90 minutes!.   Gayles does a lot of this and people will say, that doesn't impact me - well until it does.

One of his main points, is that we need to get the virus down to 8 new cases a day for Moco and he cites the CDC.  The CDC has never said that.  Most institutions - like Harvard Global Public Institute rank localities based on 100K.  https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/

Moco population is 1.051 million.  Saying 8 cases per 100k is a lot different than 8 cases per 1.051 million.

Keep in mind, that when cases are reported that is not necessarily have unique cases - i.e, many people test multiple times to get a negative test (often at request of employer).   Also, the test has a lot of false positive.  So getting to 8 new cases a day, is nearly impossible.   Don't get me started that NH deaths continue to climb in Moco- which probably relates to cases, hospitalizations - but Gayles doesn't talk about that and that is 100% in his area to tightly monitor.

Gayles will also say we are doing poorly because of overall statistics, which on the surface may have some merits, but much of the high numbers last few weeks has been related to Baltimore.

All of this is to say, he will support his decisions by science and data, when his science and data looks a lot different than the nations experts.  I could write a long long list.

I am 100 percent for safe opening and being smart.  If parents standing on the sidelines without social distancing is the concern - enforce that.  He will say that tracing pointed risk in outdoor gatherings - like Hogan mentioned.  But they give no specifics on the type of outdoor gatherings - which is a very broad brush  (i.e, shared bathrooms, tight space, people in and out of house).   They can use outdoor as a risk and put it on soccer.

Write your council members -there are a lot of at large members.   Some will listen to this.  There already is concern.   Write Hogan too. . There is a power battle going on.  But there is a lot of over-reach going on in the name of science.   I'm all for science - pick one or even two of the national recognized benchmark systems  and go with it.  Or Hogan, should really start to use state wide rules / benchmarks from his Hopkins team. [/quote]

Thanks for this. You're 100% right. This 8 cases per day thing is patently ridiculous. The only time we were at 8 cases per day was in late March, when we were barely testing. By early April, we were well above that, even during our strictest lockdown.

MoCo is currently at 9.2 cases per 100,000. Looks like that would just about qualify us for the yellow category in the link you provided, which necessitates rigorous testing and tracing programs, but not stay at home orders. It's the lowest community spread level. [/quote]

I should note that there is at least 1 vocal council member wondering about the metrics and how decisions are being made; there are several silent that I am guessing are wondering. There are some that just fall into we are following facts and science.

In the meantime, tanning salons, tattoo parlors, massage, etc are opening.    Daycare like Bar-T through 5th grade can operate - all day, in one room.  I'm not taking a position on whether they should or should not.   It just isn't adding up on logical science that we know.  [/quote]

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