Reply to For every 1,000 kids returning to a D.C. school, four will likely be infected.

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Reply to "For every 1,000 kids returning to a D.C. school, four will likely be infected. "

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Why does everyone assume a masked kid who is infected will infect other kids or teachers who are also masked and presumably, socially-distanced?  This is far from a given.[/quote]

[b]Good probability[/b] they will infect other kids or teacher esp if 10 years or older.  In addition, the greatest risk of infection is to other family members, kids bringing it home.  That is what I read somewhere was the highest percentage of transmission of infection in China [/quote]

Not really. Researchers say with face masks, the chance of infection or transmission is only 3%. Without masks it rises to 17%--still far from a sure thing.

[url]https://www.livescience.com/face-masks-eye-protection-covid-19-prevention.html[/url][/quote]

Let's assume at a school like Wilson each kid comes in contact with 100 people each day. So a 3% transmission rate means one infected kid infects three other people. If they start with a 0.8% infection rate that's 16 kids on the first day. Then they infect 48 more and that's 64. Then those 64 infect 192 more and it's 256. If they don't shut the school it doesn't take long before everyone in the school has it. [/quote]

Get a grip. No way does a kid have potential disease-spreading contact with 100 different kids at school at a time when schools are implementing all sorts of special practices and procedures to limit the spread of COVID.

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Ok, pick your number. The outcome doesn't change. [/quote]

If you truly think there’s no difference between an infected kid having contact with 100 other kids and a kid having contact with 5 other kids then perhaps you’re the one who needs to go back to school.
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NP: If you truly think high school kids at Wilson are only coming in contact with 5 other kids, you've never been to a big public high school. [/quote]

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