Reply to Reason why it's nerve-racking to go back to school in person

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[quote=Anonymous]The NYT piece is almost criminally negligent in how it's reporting the study.

From the actual paper (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article):

[quote]We also found the highest COVID-19 rate (18.6% [95% CI 14.0%–24.0%]) for household contacts of school-aged children and the lowest (5.3% [95% CI 1.3%–13.7%]) for household contacts of children 0–9 years in the middle of school closure. Despite closure of their schools, these children might have interacted with each other, although we do not have data to support that hypothesis. A contact survey in Wuhan and Shanghai, China, showed that school closure and social distancing significantly reduced the rate of COVID-19 among contacts of school-aged children (8). In the case of seasonal influenza epidemics, the highest secondary attack rate occurs among young children (9). Children who attend day care or school also are at high risk for transmitting respiratory viruses to household members (10). The low detection rate for household contacts of preschool-aged children in South Korea might be attributable to social distancing during these periods. Yet, a recent report from Shenzhen, China, showed that the proportion of infected children increased during the outbreak from 2% to 13%, suggesting the importance of school closure (11). Further evidence, including serologic studies, is needed to evaluate the public health benefit of school closure as part of mitigation strategies.[/quote]

You simply cannot conclude from these studies that it's safe to reopen schools during an active outbreak with rising caseloads. And the quotes from experts in the NYT study are quite selectively chosen. The experts are praising the study itself, but none of the experts have offered interpretation of the results beyond confirming that the study says that children transmit the virus. As a quantitative scientist, what strikes me is that the sample sizes for the kids are orders of magnitude smaller than those of the adults. I would hesitate to draw conclusions about an inconsequential scientific theory based on those numbers, let alone a massive public health decision.

Anecdotal evidence from Israel suggests the opposite of what this study has concluded. The reality is, we need to get community spread down to reopen safely. Common sense and experience with other respiratory diseases tells us this, as does the experience of every other country in the world.[/quote]

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