Reply to PSA: Fairfax County Parks, Pools and School Facility Status Recap

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]As of 05/22:  https://fairfaxcountyemergency.wpcomstaging.com/2020/05/22/parks-pools-and-school-facility-status-recap/

High school tracks and tennis courts at Fairfax County Public Schools are now open, however playgrounds, basketball courts and [b]athletic fields [/b]will remain closed.

However, I've checked with multiple high schools maintenance crews and even the police department located in Dolley Madison and Great Falls yesterday and they confirmed that the football field is part of the high school track.  As long as there are less than 10 people playing soccer within a group, that will not be an issue.  Please take your kids out to play pick up soccer game with other kids.

I did see people practice on both the softball and baseball fields and the school security patrols said nothing other than "enjoy the nice weather".  [/quote]

I really have no idea why athletic fields are closed and so many other things are open.  There are two turf fields located right next to a golf course and driving range.  The golf is open but fields are closed.  Why?[/quote]

Why are you looking for answers?  There's no good rhyme nor reason for any of this.

CDC have just basically admitted that this thing is not much worse than the 'flu at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html, where they show current best estimate at 0.4% fatality for symptomatic and 35% asymptomatic = 0.26% infection fatality rate compared to bad 'flu year of 0.2%.

So right now all these restrictions are just politicians trying not to look stupid for what they've already done.

But I agree it's very frustrating.[/quote]

Just take the CDC estimates with a grain of salt. Looking at flu deaths for last 10 years [url]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html[/url], we are already well past the estimated high of 61,000, so not just your average flu. Especially by the time all is said and done.

Also regarding the CDC estimates:

"As I see it, the 'best estimate' is extremely optimistic, and the 'worst case' scenario is fairly optimistic even as a best estimate. One certainly wants to consider worse scenarios," biologist Carl Bergstrom of the University of Washington told CNN. "By introducing these as the official parameter sets for modeling efforts, CDC is influencing the models produced by federal agencies, but also the broader scientific discourse because there will be some pressure to use the CDC standard parameter sets in modeling papers going forward," he said. "Given that these parameter sets underestimate fatality by a substantial margin compared to current scientific consensus, this is deeply problematic."

Peoples levels of risk tolerance are different. Expecting consistency from our government is foolish. Be informed, be safe[/quote]

Think the 0.26% is likely in the ballpark, and is in line with what many scientists and universities are suggesting and have been suggesting for a while.  Fatalities would still appear higher than the flu because it's more contagious so people are getting it faster.  If twice as many people catch it, and its twice as dangerous, then four times as many people will die.  However, this would suggest that fatalities in subsequent years would be lower as immunity would have built faster because more people got it quicker.  And certainly true that for people in nursing homes the risk is much larger than for the 'flu, whereas for the rest of the population the risk (once caught) seems about 50% worse (so maybe 100-150% worse overall given you are more likely to catch it).
[/quote]

Also, less than 1% of the population is in nursing homes but that is accounting for close to a majority of the deaths. Protect nursing homes and elderly people and you eliminate most of the people getting seriously ill and dying. That's the best you can do. You can't stop people from getting a virus unless you lockdown everything. And that's not feasible long-term. Look at how people are going out now that restrictions are loosening. Sadly, there's a balance between lockdown and fully open that needs to be followed and people need to be responsible. It's not going to stop people from dying. But every single public policy ... driving age, drinking age, speed limits, etc. has a cost-benefit analysis. But we're only counting the coronavirus deaths. [/quote]

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