Reply to There is so much we don't know about the virus - and here's another reason to be cautious

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Also, I’m not talking about an antibody response. I’m talking about the antibody testing that was done in NYC to estimate the true number of COVID cases.

I’m doing that to estimate the commonality of Kawasaki among NYC COVID-positive children. [/quote]

You realize that the testing measures the level of antibody response to the virus, right?

Or what was it you were thinking was being tested?[/quote]

You’re still not getting it.

I brought up the antibody testing TO ESTIMATE THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF CASES. That’s it. I’m not interested in the antibody response specifically. I was estimating how common Kawasaki is, percentage-wise, in NYC.

[[b][u]Are you confusing Kawasaki with COVID-19 here? They aren't the same thing[/u].[/b]]

You need the actual number of cases to estimate that. Actual number of cases can be derived—roughly—from the results of the antibody testing they did.[/quote]

Antibody testing is dependent on the antibody response. That is LITERALLY what it measures -- if you cite the test, you are measuring the response. And kids have a different antibody response than adults do -- e.g., this is why the DTap has higher levels of tetanus toxoid than the TDaP, because kids don't respond the same way to the bacteria.

Tests that pick up prior cases in adults might not pick them up in kids, or they might overrepresent them, or they might underrepresent them. You can't extrapolate from the adult response (measured by the antibody test) to make conclusions about what it says about kids. Kids aren't just short adults. [/quote]

Ok. I’ll try to explain more clearly.

This was my goal: to estimate the percentage of actual pediatric COVID cases that also show Kawasaki.

How do I get there? I use the antibody testing in NYC because that’s the best way to estimate actual COVID cases. That testing was done with a REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF THE POPULATION.

What is a representative sample? It’s a sub-section of the population that mimics the characteristics of the whole population. That includes age.

What does that mean? It means that because the antibody testing suggested the actual number of cases in NYC was about 5 times higher than the confirmed, I can use that to extrapolate the actual case number in any demographic group I want to look at.

So what did I do with that information? I took the confirmed number of pediatric COVID cases—4,088–and multiplied it by 5 to get about 20,000. Then I computed 15/20,000 to estimate the percentage of actual pediatric COVID cases with Kawasaki.

I hope that’s clearer. [/quote]

It's not. Can you link your citation?

What I see reference to online is not a "representative sample" stratified by age, but a random sampling from various supermarkets. If you are relying on that to make conclusions about kids, you are way off.

If you're relying on a different study, I'd like to see the data, because I don't have a lot of confidence in how it is being assessed and presented here. [/quote]

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