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[quote=Anonymous]Most Americans don't have a clear understanding of what the EU is or what it means and that there is an ideological as well as economic basis for the EU. The long term goal for the EU is effectively to turn Europe to a United States of Europe. The original goal of the EU is admirable, it was fully intended to make sure there would never again be destructive wars to divide and destroy Europe. But this requires substantial transfers of national sovereignty from the individual countries to the centralized EU. It's something the United States would never stomach, we would never allow a superior court consisted mostly of non Americans to pass judgment over American affairs, or a Parliament staffed mainly by delegates who are not elected by Americans to pass regulations that Americans must obey. The political structure of the EU has a substantial democratic deficit that Americans would never tolerate, the EU parliament, while elected, has little powers of its own and only rubber stamps the decisions of the 28 EU commissioners, each appointed (but not elected) by each country's leader.

The EU grew through stealth. It started out as a common market (strictly economic) and the UK joined the common market in the 1970s. Since then the EU has inched towards federalization through a series of broad treaties that transferred sovereignty to the EU bureaucracy and new Parliament in Brussels. Each individual treaty was highly unpopular in the UK but were forced through by the respective prime ministers of the day. Tony Blair had promised a referendum of a major EU treaty but signed it without the referendum because he knew it would be heavily defeated in a referendum. Each treaty was ratified by the UK parliament of the day but never had much popularity among the British (countries that did have referendums, like France and the Netherlands, had electorates that rejected the treaty but the governments went ahead and ratified the treaties, and the Irish government made their citizens vote twice to get the result they wanted). One of the treaties introduced freedom of movement, allowing EU citizens to move and work in all EU countries without real restriction, and the initial estimation by the Blair government was that around 10-15,000 EU citizens per year would come to the UK, the actual reality was close to 300,000 came per year. Anyone who lived in London in 2000 versus today knows fully well the remarkable transformation that has happened in London as a result - and this was on top of very large scale non-EU immigration that started under the Blair government as well.

Britain has long had a complicated relationship with the EU. It has been the least ideologically committed to the EU vision or the vision of a integrated and federalized Europe, it has often been the most resentful of new EU regulations. The pro-EU attitudes of particularly the Labour governments and parts of the Tory party is at great odds with the clear majority of the population. Even today many if not most "remainers" in the UK are opposed to further EU federalization, despite that it's guaranteed to happen. Their argument of staying in the EU but reforming from within is hollow to any impartial observer because the EU only reforms in one direction - further integration.

Politics and ideology aside, "no deal" means the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal in place. The other thing most Americans also don't understand is that there isn't actually a trade deal being negotiated between the EU and the UK over the past three years. It's the withdrawal agreement to settle all outstanding obligations between the UK and the EU. This withdrawal agreement would also include the frameworks for a future trade deal and the transition to that trade deal to allow as much economic activities to continue with minimal interruption. The EU firmly stated they would not negotiate a trade deal alongside the withdrawal agreement (which would be logical as it would kick in place upon the withdrawal). The Withdrawal Agreement is collapsing because a condition of the agreement was the Irish backstop, a guarantee that no matter what happened in the future, the Irish border would remain fully open, and on the EU terms, not the UK terms. The May government's concession to not force the EU to negotiate the trade agreement alongside the withdrawal agreement was a major mistake as the topic that is causing the collapse of the talks is all about a trade border, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. May squandered any leverage she had on the outset. But this is a separate topic.

What no deal does NOT mean is the end of trade between the UK and the EU. It simply means trade operates on WTO terms. As a reference point, the US trades with the EU on WTO terms, so it is clearly not the end of the world. The danger is the slowdown in the supply chains between the UK and the EU, slowing down the delivery of goods and services. WTO introduces "friction" to trade. It really is open to debate what the actual consequences are but I suspect it won't be anywhere nearly as bad as some are predicting, but it will also be more troublesome than others want to believe. I lived in Qatar when the blockade began and previously virtually all trade to Qatar went via the UAE and Saudi but the supply chains was remarkable in rapidly adjusting to new sources and routes and there were no supermarket shortages despite that nearly all foodstuff is imported. The UK is indeed a much bigger country but that comes with its own pros and cons in a large-scale disruption.

I wish the British best of luck. I'm confident no-deal is the final outcome and I also suspect there won't be a trade treaty for a very long time (possibly never) but I also suspect it will have minimal impact on the British economy beyond a short term disruption as the economy readjusts.

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