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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Does anybody know the rough IB/OOB split at hardy by grade? Is the 6th grade different from the 8th?[/quote]

Some math that may or may not answer your question.

The claim at the beginning of the year was 90% feeder (which isn't the same as IB).
Last year there were 163 6th graders, so that means that about 145 feeder students.
There were only 149 7th graders and 139 8th graders.

At the feeders, here are the numbers of 5th graders:
Eaton Elementary School:	61
Hyde-Addison Elementary School @ Meyer:	33
Key Elementary School:	45
Stoddert Elementary School:	51
Mann Elementary School	43
Total: 233

If prior year trends hold, then say 145 of these students move on to Hardy.

Now in the lottery this year, Hardy opened up 20 seats for the 6th grade class, but none for the 7th or 8th grade classes. This will mean that about 90% of Hardy 6th grade will be feeder. IF last years IB pattern continues. It looks like DCPS is trying to keep Hardy at 90% feeder. This isn't Deal; but pretty high. And if the feeder numbers increase, then we could be seeing the end of OOB lottery for Hardy.

Now the future, Hardy's building capacity is 650 or about 215 students per grade. The Hardy feeders have about 350 students in K and 1st each. This means if Hardy truly 'flips', it could be looking at serving >900 kids - making Hardy a Deal-like situation in terms of crowding. This may not happen soon - but if trends continue, its looking more and more likely. Now some on this site think this is imminent, but it could take a good 4-5 years to happen. Right now, Stoddert and Hyde have a 40% and 50% attrition rate from K/1st to 5th grade (in class size). For comparison, Janney has a 10-20% attrition rate.

But! This high attrition seems to be slowing down. The outgoing 4th grade class at Stoddert is the same size at the 1st grade class. The same is true at Eaton and Mann too. (But not true at Key/Hyde - the latter which is still in a flex space somewhere far)

My semi-uninformed opinion is that the feeder/non-feeder split is:
incoming 6th grade: 90%
incoming 7th grade: 85% (attrition, not through new OOB students)
incoming 8th grade: 40%

Assuming that feeders are 75-80% IB and proportional pass-through:
6th ~65-70% IB
7th ~60-65% IB
8th ~30% IB (Current statistics are based on this cohort) - the official number is 27%

So, I'm guessing the medium-run the school will stabilize at 70% IB, which is what Deal is at.

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