Reply to Greater Greater Washington story on school enrollment growth

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Wow this article is so clueless.  [/quote]

how so?[/quote]

Because parents will never accept pure lottery, and it is not logistically feasible for people even if they liked it philosophically.  The tide is turning against it as San Francisco's experience has shown.

Because someone with a clue would know that DCPS numbers are guesses at best and lies at worst.  Not just the enrollment projections, but the capacity stats, are really questionable.

Because if you compare these numbers with the enrollment projections in the SY 19-20 budgets, they don't match up well.

Because DCPS can and does add capacity, e.v. Van Ness, Bard, Brookland Middle, Wells Middle.  And opening new middle and high schools can result in capacity increases in other grade levels.[/quote]

Hi, this is Nick Keenan, the article's author.

I made a conscious decision not to question the projections for the article. I realize that DCPS capacity numbers are built on a shaky foundation at best, and that the assignment of future growth to specific schools is conjecture. The reason I left that out is that it doesn't really change the underlying story. The population projections come from Office of Planning, they have a history of being conservative, and their 5-10 year projections are based on housing and current demographics, which means that the projections are based largely on houses that have already been built and kids that have already been born. In the article I hint at several ways the projections may actually be too low.

The underlying story is that for 50 years DCPS hasn't really had to worry about facilities, at least not about expanding them. Unpack this sentence for a bit: "Even though DC has gained over 22,000 public school students since 2008, and between 2008 and 2013 DCPS shrunk from 134 to 110 schools, the number of seats still exceeds the number of students by about 25%." DCPS has 13,000 empty seats even though it just closed 24 schools and the city just finished adding 22,000 students? WTF? How many empty seats did it have ten years ago? 30,000? But we are on the cusp of a historical break.  For the first time in 60 years DCPS has to think about capacity.

The things that have worked in the past few decades just aren't going to work any more. There is a reason that DCPS hasn't made more than minor boundary adjustments in almost 50 years. Boundaries don't really matter when you've got tens of thousands of empty seats and three quarters of the kids assigned by lottery anyway.

As to the comment, "parents will never accept pure lottery," what do you propose instead? Take the example of Lafayette from the article -- "projected to have 1,167 students in a building with a capacity for 805. However, the seven closest elementary schools to Lafayette will all also be over capacity, by a combined 853 students." It's not a simple case of moving a line from one slightly overcrowded school toward a neighboring one with capacity. All those kids need to go somewhere, and the schools with capacity are over on the other side of the city.

Anyway, I welcome the opportunity to interact with you and the discussion.

Thanks,
Nick
[/quote]

Question to Nick: Are you children in DCPS?[/quote]

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