Reply to Struck Out in DC school lottery....Tell/Sell me in your non-W School Cluster

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]Anonymous wrote:
- Socioeconomic diversity but nothing above 30% FARMS/ESOL population

1. There are 2 FARMS to look at to understand the poverty demographics. The % of current students currently on FARMS and % of current students who have ever been on FARMS. Some kids drop off FARMS because their parents start earning more money but this usually isn't that much more. Some students stop submitting the paperwork in high school for FARMS so the 'has ever been on FARMS' number is better representation of need.

2. You will have a hard time finding a 500K 4 bedroom house with a nice yard anywhere with less than 30% currently on FARMS let alone ever been on FARMS.

Either up your budget or lower your expectations.

Renting is a better bet in MoCo anyway as the county is stagnating. You're likely to loose or make no equity over the next few years so renting is better financially -in this are- anyway.

Rents are high in the nicer areas of the west with the better schools and low in the eastern side. However, there are magnet programs all over the county so if you end up in Silver Spring you might be OK if you get into a magnet.

This is helpful! Thank you! We will still perhaps make a purchase after renting. Why is the county stagnating? I assume all cities or towns go through cyclical growth and downturns.[/quote]

The county is in serious financial trouble.

There has been zero new business growth. The smaller and local businesses in MoCo either fail or move over to Howard and Frederick. The larger business sectors are all in VA. There have been many articles on this but MoCo is very unfriendly to businesses so they can't survive. This cuts off a source of revenue for the county and means that most people in MoCo have to commute to VA or DC for work.

MoCo demographics also hurt the revenue. The largest growing groups are retirees and lower income hispanic residents. (FTR there isn't evidence that the explosion in low income hispanic residents is from undocumented workers. ) Wealth is only concentrated in Potomac, Bethesda and Chevy Chase. Potomac in particular has a retirement bubble occurring meaning each year high income residents move into retirement but don't necessarily move reducing taxable income from that area. The other areas are all getting poorer. This means less revenue from income taxes.

Housing costs in MoCo are less expensive than VA and DC and property values have just barely made it back to 2005 levels where as DC and VA have soared above those levels. This means people have less equity. The property tax assessments in many areas are artificially high. As people retire and sell for actual market rates rather than the tax assessment, new owners are challenging the inflated assessments. This means all means less revenue from property tax. Rental household have been steadily increasing which devalues the property values further.

There is low scale panic about MCPS redrawing boundaries to move neighborhoods with higher performing whites and asians into lower performing schools for diversity. This will move to high scale panic in the next few years as it plays out. Some people will lose a lot in equity but it will overall destabilize and depress the market throughout the county. The changes don't even have to be extreme to freak out future buyers.

The schools generate a lot of negative publicity. The sex offender scandals, MCPS' policy on not removing violent kids from the schools creates incidents that make the press, the whole curriculum fiasco, and other problems drive some residents out to Howard. Frederick or VA depending on where they work.

There are just a whole host of problems. Its still a nice place to live but you need to be careful because its not a wise investment.

[/quote]

I agree with the PP.

MCPS has serious issues.  There are some fantastic teachers, but MCPS leadership does their best to discourage them and lower morale.  Plus, the sexual abuse scandals, and the inane PBIS, useless Code of Conduct leads to behavioral issues galore in most schools.

If you have other options, it's worth considering them if the school system is important to you.  [/quote]

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