Reply to Are option schools in Arlington reducing or exacerbating FARMS distribution

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I realized with the new data that APS published last night on 'resident' FARMS students, that I could reverse out the number of FARMS students who transfer as compared to the number of non-FARMS students who transfer out of a given zone.   I thought others might be interested.

Abingdon- 114 FARMS transfers- 432 total transfers.

Barcroft- 56 FARMS Transfers- 322 total transfers.

Henry 25 FARMS Transfers- 110 total transfers.

Long Branch- 17 FARMS transfers 181 total transfers

Oakridge 42 FARMS transfers 220 total transfers

Randolph 1 FARMS transfer 166 total transfers

[/quote]
Can you describe your arithmetic? I think the interpretation is plausible but you'd expect to see stronger effects at schools with higher farms rates if "fleeing" holds water. Also,  Oakridge and Henry have themselves lower farms rates than the option schools ... so what are those families "fleeing"?

You'd also want to know which schools are just transferring a lot of kids as a proportion of resident total, rich or poor - and that would point to things like neighborhood preference for option schools . Then there is spanish immersion, which further complicates the analysis since it was actually designed not as a way to escape economic diversity but to encourage it; that is why Key became immersion in 1986, to get white families back into the school.

So I think the "fleeing" explanation is a factor there are a lot of variables that make quantifying it messy.[/quote]

I'm happy to 'show my work.'   This table gives 'resident' FARMS students- https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/School-Level-Data-Table-Revised-October-2018.pdf

These table gives 'enrolled' FARMS students- https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FREE-REDUCED-OCTOBER-31-2017.pdf
Resident subtracted by enrolled gives you the number of resident farms students who are transferring out.
Transfer report gives total number of transfer students- https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Transfer-Report-2017-18.pdf[/quote]

There is a flaw in this analysis. The FARMS table include preschool students, not just K-5. Most of those preschool students will be FARMS, so if you want to account for this, I would look at the monthly enrollment numbers from October 2017 (which were counted at about the same time as the FARMS statistics), look at the difference between K-5 enrolled in that month and the number enrolled in the FARMS table, assume all of those preschool students are FARMS and subtract them from each school's total FARMS students to esstimate the K-5 FARMS numbers for each school.[/quote]

I agree with you that the preschool is throwign the numbers.   I don't think it is quite safe to say all preschool is FARMS b/c special ed and montessori isn't-- but I am going to try and play around with this a little more.[/quote]

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