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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]APS's enrollment forecast will be useless as long as Chadwick is involved with them.  Ask McKinley.[/quote]

Chadwick isn't involved anymore. They moved projections over to Lisa Stengle's area, and supposedly they are working more closely with County housing staff now to have one consistent set of population projections that reflects where they expect housing growth based on construction projects in the pipeline. The spring projection spreadsheet doesn't usually come out until mid-April, so it isn't late yet. The updated fall projections came out on Dec. 12, 2017 and are available here: https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FallProjections18-27_Official_Web.pdf

You can see from the spreadsheet above that they have big problems with the ASFS/Key area. I don't see how they can avoid making both of those buildings neighborhood schools with those population numbers. My guess is the Key immersion program moves to the ATS building and the ATS program moves to Nottingham-- but all that doesn't happen until Reed opens in 2021.

In the meantime, Campbell program moves to Claremont, Claremont program to Carlin Springs, and Carlin Springs program to Campbell-- and that can all happen much more quickly (when Fleet opens) because it doesn't require the new seats at Reed to make it work. 
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They are not going to put four of the five choice programs in the western half of the county, it would make it impossible to manage capacity. Using choice programs to manage capacity only works if the programs are dispersed throughout the county[/quote]

PP here. Not defending it, but if you look at the map, they would basically be creating a North/South immersion option (ATS & Carlin Springs) in locations where there is a concentration of Spanish speakers. (ASFS is also a good place for immersion based on native Spanish speakers, but they have a serious seat shortage in the R-B area if you look at the projections-- I just don't see how they can give up that building for neighborhood seats given all the multi-family construction and expected population increase in that area.) [b]Putting a choice program at Nottingham is no more out of the way for South Arlington families than a choice program at Claremont is for North Arlington families.[/b] If you want to create more balance, then you either give out a set number of seats at those programs to each neighborhood attendance zone (e.g, HBW process) or alternatively you give out choice seats weighted more heavily to the neighborhood schools that are most overcrowded.

As a county, I still don't think we've come to a consensus on the "goal" of maintaining the traditional and expeditionary learning programs though-- and that goal should drive how we structure the admissions process. In other words, are we trying to target those programs to students with specific needs? Relieve overcrowding? Force more N-S diversity? Unclear.

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Nottingham/Tuckahoe/Discovery, basically anything in that quadrant is a nonstarter for economically disadvantaged families without a car. If you live in the part of NA that is zoned to Claremont, you can afford a car and likely have the luxury of a job with paid leave and/or a flexible schedule. Option schools should be accessible for all, not just the wealthy.

To your other points, they are not splitting immersion to N/S rather than E/W. If ATS is a good spot for an option school, they are not going to waste effort and money to move one option school out and another in. That is just ridiculous. As for the goal of the other programs, the admissions process is the same for all countywide programs: open access and parental choice. I don't think that should be changed, nor is there any indication the board is considering any changes. These are schools where you apply when you child is 4 or 5 years old. Except in extreme circumstances, it is unlikely that anything other than parental knowledge of their own child's personality and family preference could be considered. You want kids submitting a preschool portfolio with their application or something?

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