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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Russian breakthrough.

As war goes worse for Ukraine, corruption will ramp up further as oligarchs and generals cash in before the fall.[/quote]

Why do you think the war is going worse for Ukraine?  There are lot of new developments.  Some critics complained the Ukrainian offensive 'stalled', but I disagree.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-armed-forces-gain-foothold-061200095.html

This helps encircle Russian troops in Bakhmut:
"Ukrainian forces have captured the high ground surrounding Klischiivka, a little less than two miles south of Andriivka"

This should cut off all resupply routes to Melitopol and Sevastopol (and the Crimean peninsula), with the exception of route M14 and the Black Sea:
"Ukrainian troops had gained ground in the vicinity of Staromaiorske"

This threatens route M14:
"Russians made unsuccessful attempts to restore the lost position northeast of Robotyne"

Remember that the Ukrainians don't necessarily need to capture M14, they can just mine or crater it constantly. Rostov on Don (headquarters in Russia for the Ukrainian offensive - you remember - this is where Prigozhin dropped by on his way to Moscow) is a five hour drive away from Robotyne (without landmines).

"Ukraine’s Defense Ministry warned on July 20 that it would consider all ships heading to Russian ports in the Black Sea, as well as to ports in the temporarily occupied territories, as "carrying military cargo with all the relevant risks.""
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-attacks-russian-patrol-ship-121200698.html

This was a good reciprocal move by the Ukrainians, since this means that Russian's can't completely rely on Black Sea-based cargo either.  Since M14, Black-Sea port calls, and the Kerch bridge are the primary re-supply routes into the Crimean peninsula, it could be a rough winter for any troops are civilians there.

Once the Ukrainian government is prepared to take out M14, my guess is they will make an announcement that all civilians should leave the Crimean peninsula.  Once word of M14 being cut off gets out, my guess is the Russian-aligned civilians would panic long before that happens; perhaps even clogging M14 and the Kerch Bridge themselves?  This will likely cause a domino mass panic-effect in Russian troops, since the Russian troops would be nearly impossible to re-supply.  Cutting off M14, Kerch Bridge and Black Sea ships would make all of the Crimean peninsula a "last stand" for any troops there.

"Russian tourist in Crimea complains about rockets"
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/159lwn5/russian_tourist_in_crimea_complains_about_rockets/

If the "Russian riviera" is under siege (and it's a terrible beach - nothing but pebbles..), I would think this will significantly impact Russian morale on the home-front?[/quote]

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