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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]You people are absolutely f'ing deranged. I am Iranian. My parents are Iranian. My entire very large extended family is Iranian. Every. Single. One. of the Iranian people I know are absolutely THRILLED with this turn of events. They are literally taking to the streets and celebrating, including here in DC.

I am a lifelong progressive Democrat. Typically, progressives center the narratives of people directly affected and allow them to define their own oppression. But now that they see an opening to criticize Israel (75% of this thread is foaming-at-the mouth, over-the-top, ISIS-level anti-Israel conspiracy propaganda), suddenly what actual Iranians say and feel doesn't matter to them at all. I don't care that Israel was involved here. I simply do not care. If they're the ones that create a catalyst for change in my country that ends up freeing 93 million people from the hellscape they've been living in, great. You people are so BLINDED by your maniacal hatred of Israel and to a lesser extent Trump (who I'm no fan of generally) that you can't perceive the absolute absurd hypocrisy of your position.

It's fine to object to this on the basis that it's not America's affair and they should stay out of it, because tax dollars or whatever BS (so far, only six American service members have (tragically) died, so I really don't think it's concern for our troops). Immoral position to take in the face of this regime, but ok. That's not what most of this thread is doing, though. People are instead moralizing at actual Iranians and pretending to care about the girls school that was bombed (unconfirmed that this was even Israel/the US and not Iran itself) or the future of Iran. Where were you when this regime murder FORTY THOUSAND OF ITS OWN PEOPLE?? When it tortured dissidents in secret prisons, threw acid on women for not covering their hair, literally went into hospitals where protesters were being treated and shot them point blank in the head? You don't give one flying f about Iranian people. Please don't pretend otherwise.

As far as I can tell, so far, all America has done is kill (extremely justifiably) a bunch of monstrous butchers and weakened their grip on power. This may or may not lead to regime change, but I can tell you for damn certain the regime is not going to be able to carry on the same way after this. Absolute WORST case scenario, the regime persists but its nuclear ambitions are done for and it becomes more friendly to US interests.  
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Two things can be true at once. The Ayatollah was bad (was going to say the world is better off now, but I'm honestly not certain that is true bexause of the way this has been handled) AND this administration is a clown show being led around by the nose by Israel AND international law and human rights are being violated, and for what reason, the administration has not been able to clearly communicate.[/quote]

Okay so why do my kids need to die for this? We can’t go around doing things so other people can be happy at our expense. We need health care in America. We need to support our next generation. Not get into random wars because some people are happy.[/quote]

Exactly six American servicemembers have died in this conflict so far. Far less than the number of Americans killed by the Iranian regime and its proxies. Pipe down. [/quote]

You pipe down.  We don't want our kids in this fight.[/quote]

You people don't get it, do you. The Islamist terrorist rot that this regime spreads will come for you too. Just look at the state of this thread. It's page after page after page of antisemitic, anti-Western propaganda talking points. This regime has murdered Americans on American soil. It has murdered Americans abroad. It will continue to murder Americans and threaten American interests until it is stopped. And if it gets nukes - it cannot be stopped. [/quote]

So worth it to forgo cancer research for American children for this? Reasonable to take away healthcare subsidies for Americans for this? [/quote]

If it succeeds? Certainly.[/quote]

You can’t even get regime change in Gaza . It took 10 years to get regime change in Syria. How are they going to get regime change in Iran? Trump is notoriously impatient. Within a few weeks or less, he’s going to want this wrap this up and move on.
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Rather different situation, right?

Iran is a functioning (ish) nation with organized opposition. Leadership can’t just disappear into tunnels (unlike Gaza). If they do, country will cease functioning and opposition will take control.

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[b]Who / what is the organized opposition? What are they doing right now or planning? Can you provide a link that lays gives an analysis of this organized opposition and their plans?

I haven't heard any plans for organized opposition besides Trump telling the Kurds to go and fight.[/b] [/quote]

DP. Below is a link to a short primer on the various opposition groups. Basically, there is no large, organized, or coordinated opposition. Iran is an ethnically diverse country of 92-93 million people (one of the most populous countries on earth). There is no one opposition party or movement. It's not going to be easy for those opposed to the regime to take back their country.

Who are the Iranian opposition and can they take on the regime?
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-reza-pahlavi-opposition-war-who-are-rtst9tm8b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqf9EdLIdwqJcBSPpuWHrYSGuLfEqSv7sk5pBWa85Tw3nrIi0sQySywV2XfyWz0%3D&gaa_ts=69a9acd7&gaa_sig=ne0K3VD10245E3ToaaAg75gW37R79KPVNjoD_iZpUUnDldJpjDTEUCF0R3L6ZOZZf-KHZySiHa8iuHpaOHR1mQ%3D%3D[/quote]

If that's the opposition, I really fear that Iran will turn into a failed stated with civil war. Here is rundown of the opposition in the article:

1 - Reza Pahlavi - Loathed by many. Not gonna happen.

2 - MEK - designated a terrorist group by the US. A cultish organization that joined Saddam against Iranians in the 80s. So that's a no.

3 - Diaspora groups - Useless.

4 - Minorities - this equates to civil war

5 - Protest movements - Not organized or cohesive. The article also mentions one of the protest leaders home being bombed. Looks like someone (most likely Israel) doesn't want any leader emerging from the protest movements.

6 - The Strategic Council of Republicans Inside Iran - Considering this group was just announced on Sunday it sounds like Mossad or the CIA.[/quote]

Thanks for the synopsis, PP (I'm the pp who posted the link to the article). NONE of the above groups sound promising. Even the may thousands of brave young people who have repeatedly come out to protest can't do it alone--they have been slaughtered in large numbers each time they protest. [b]Government forces would have to get to the point of refusing to fire upon their fellow citizens before mass protests can succeed.[/b]

The article points out one key obstacle--the government's internet blackout--which hampers efforts for opposition groups to organize.

"All protest movements rely on disparate groups being able to coordinate with each other. Therefore, they are highly vulnerable to Iran’s increasing use of internet blackouts, including the national blackout under which security forces carried out January’s unprecedented slaughter."[/quote]

That did not happen in the US in the past few months.  Why do you think that would happen while Iran is under attack from the US and Israel? The US is not attacking Iran to free the Iranian people. That has been made clear. The US wants a dictatorship like Saddam Hussein. Someone who will support Israel, do deals with Trump and suppress the Iranian people. The Israelis just want a failed state with a long civil war.

If Iran comes out of this intact or a functioning states it is the worst case scenario. This attack will set them back maybe 6 months but in 2-3 years their drones and ballistic missiles will be greatly improved. You really think they did not move all their key assets for drone and missile manufacturing? The Iranian had a lot of time to prepare for this. Remember the supreme leader was 86 years old and fighting cancer. He chose to become a martyr.

The Russians and Chinese are gaining a lot of intelligence from this. The Chinese will have samples of every interceptor and other missiles in the US inventory and will be able to track how long it takes to restock. They also will know how many drones or missiles were fired and how many got through. They will come up with ways to jam or confuse guide systems in our weapon systems. The US has not fought a peer to peer war in a long time. The Russians and Chinese will help Iran build better cheap missiles and drones.

Here is a scenario for you. Let’s say the people rise up and try to implement a democracy. What do you think the hardliners in Iran are going to do? They can easily stop a democracy with a few assassinations and terrorists campaigns. The cell networks and electricity grid has been knocked out by the US and Israel. That can not be restored unless the hardliners allow it. Guess who would fund that - Israel because their goal is a failed state. Israel will fund any faction just to keep them fight amongst themselves. If one faction gets too strong Israel will take it down. This is their play book will all their neighbors. Why change a thing?

Unfortunately the Iranian people they are f’ed. [/quote]

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