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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]538:

Biden's chance of winning AZ 70%

Biden's chance of winning FL 67%

Biden's chance of winning GA 58%

Biden's chance of winning TX 36% (aka greater than 1/3)

Say what you will about Nate Silver, but he shows how he uses actual data. [/quote]
His data is only as good as the polls he gets, so let’s hope those are right.[/quote]

You realize there are a LOT of public pollsters, right? And that many of them are often very good?

[/quote]

Trafalgar was almost 100% right in 2016 and, called all the Rust Belt for Trump and got the electoral college numbers correct. I’ll go with them. All these other pollsters have been proven to wildly underestimate Trump support and turnout.

Look at the Wisconsin early voting numbers and tell me you’re not scared. These polls are going to be more off than they were in 2016.[/quote]

Several things.

1.  Most pollsters have corrected for Trump support, by adding in education as a metric.  His most reliable supporters are in the 'non college' category, which they now keep tabs on and factor into their numbers.  (Interestningly, Selzer does not).

2.  Trafalgar missed many, many, many results both before, and since 2016.  In fact, they have missed more than they have called correctly, *because* their bias is to the right, and that is the specific reason they got 2016 right.  In an election with many undecideds, everyone breaking the same way yielded a 3-state, 100K win for Trump.  There is not a huge pool of undecideds in this election.

2.  Let's look at the cross tabs on Trafalgar's Michigan poll, which has Trump up by 2.  It has Biden pulling 25% support from Republicans.  And Trump pulling 30% support from Democrats.  Even more interestingly, the independents are going to Trump by 32 points.  If any of this sounds reasonably plausible to you, then there is nothing I can say to convince you that Trafalgar poll is an outlier.[/quote]

Different pp here.  That doesn't sound at all plausible.  [/quote]

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