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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I think MCPS has about 12,000 kids per grade so if you take 15% of that you get 1800. 100 spots for 1800 kids is 5.6 percent of those IN THE POOL. Very low odds.[/quote]

Not that this back-of-the envelope approach is wrong for this kind of discussion, but there are 75 seats at Clemente for upcounty (25 of those are catchment-reserved, or at least used to be as of last year), and not all of the top 15% of scorers meet the other criteria.  Assuming it's more like top 13%, removing the RCMS and TPMS in-bounds populations and using 150 out-of-bounds seats, one gets an estimate of 150 / ((12000 - 500) * 0.13) ~ 10% chance for out-of-bounds pool qualifiers to get in.[/quote]

I didn't realize that was the likelihood of acceptance. So low!

What would be interesting to see is outcomes measurements across these programs. How do they perform compared to other pool qualifiers who didn't get a spot, on say, a variety of metrics? Also, how do they compare to out-of-bounds interest-based lotteries like Argyle, Loiderman, Parkland ? Does standards based lotteries necessarily bring a better outcome that interest based lotteries? [/quote]

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