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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]OP here.

This is just my personal observation/speculation although I’ve been following this topic closely.

1. The possibility of a new school coming to fruition is higher than ever given that it’s going to be on the referendum. This is a tangible action which never happened before.

2. Seems like the Hutchison site is very likely. The CIP MAP shows it and the FPAC has been recommending it.

3. Boundary changes will obviously happen. But this is just one high school and FCPS has more than 25 high schools. I really don’t think the county wide boundary adjustment would happen.

4. Hutchison kids will go to the new school. It’s just too close. That means some relief to Herndon.

5. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Herndon will get Langley kids. Langley was never included as a potentially impacted school in the CIP. Strauss once mentioned that possibility verbally but that’s about it and she is gone.

6. There are some people who want to stick it to Langley by moving Great Falls kids from Langley and moving Tysons (apartment) kids to Langley.  There are also some Grear Falls moms on this board who oppose any potential threat to the Langley boundary.

7.  Personally I think the high school will get Carson kids plus Hutchison kids giving relief to Herndon, Westfield, South Lakes, and Oakton. Westfield in turn would give relief to Centreville and Chantilly. On the other hand, Herndon will not be able to give releif to Langley. This is because 1) Herndon area is expected to grow fast (look at the town’s development plans), 2) CIP includes only six schools I mentioned but didn’t include Langley, and 3) the political opposition would be too strong. 
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I guess we’ll see.  By the time the new school is built there may have been just as much growth in other parts of the county as Herndon, if not more.  And the School Board making the decisions about boundary adjustments will likely be a different group than the current board. [/quote]

Disagree.

The population growth will be very uneven throughout the county.  The student enrollment actually decrease in certain areas.  You have to look at the demogrphics and development plans. The county has a significnat development plans across the Silver line.  High Hispanic population in Herndon and we all know which group has the highest birth rates. [/quote]

That's too crude an assumption.  If you look at the HS that's seen the most growth over the past decade or so, it's probably Marshall, and Marshall has a lower percentage of Hispanic kids than most FCPS pyramids.

As for the development plans, for sure there are plans along the Silver Line extension, but also plans (and actual developments) in other places, including Tysons, West Falls Church, and the Route 1 corridor.  [/quote]

Yes it was a simple generalization. But my argument still stands. The county will see uneven population growth depending on the areas (you know Langley’s enrollment is not growing?) and Herndon will have a higher growth. Read the CIP:

“The anticipation of the completion of the Silver Line Metro has already spurred higher density residential growth along that corridor which may result in an increase in students within FCPS.  
The FY 2022-26 CIP continues to include the construction of a new high school in the western area of the county to provide capacity relief for high schools in the Centreville, Chantilly, Herndon, Oakton, South Lakes, and Westfield areas.”

[/quote]

Yes, of course, the county will see uneven population growth.  But the growth is just as likely to occur in the areas currently served by Metro slated for future development as along the future stations also slated for development.

And we can repeat the one-line sentence about the schools for which a new high school might provide capacity relief until we're all blue in the face.  It does not mean that those will be the only schools affected by the new school.  That won't be decided until the new school is built, and it will ultimately be determined by a future School Board - not the one elected in 2019 (few, if any, of whose members are likely to still be serving when the decisions are made).  [/quote]

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