Reply to Would you support a hard shutdown option for two to four weeks to crush the virus?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]It will be back in Europe too in a few months. They are looking like we were late spring, joyfully "outside" and distanced. Wearing a mask when it seemed cool. Covid simmers then explodes! Their bomb has started ticking again too. [/quote]

It's started in Belgium.  https://www.aa.com.tr/en/latest-on-coronavirus-outbreak/belgium-strengthens-covid-19-measures-as-cases-rise/1920232

Why is everyone surprised at this?  Remember that the lock down was to "flatten the curve?"  It was always predicted that the virus would rebound the moment we reopened.

A 2-4 week lockdown only delays the spread, doesn't stop it.  As long as people live in households of more than one person, 2-4 weeks of lockdown wouldn't even slow it down very much. [/quote]

Stop comparing European nations with the US.  There's no comparison.

From the link you posted:

[quote]
Between early June and mid-July, Belgium reported the daily number of new COVID-19 infections at an average of 100. From July 13, the number of cases increased. [b]On July 20, a record number of 370 new cases were registered[/b].[/quote]

Population of Belgium is 11.5 million

370 new cases per day per 11.5 million = 32 new cases per day per million

Belgium is declaring 32 new cases per day per million a "MAJOR OUTBREAK".   They want to to get back to 8 new cases per million people.

There are only a few states with spread as low as 32 new cases per day per milloin in the US and none only have 8 new cases per million per day.

It IS working in Belgium.  Whatever measures they took got spread down to 8, and now as they see a rise, they are clamping down again.

When WE in the US get spread down to 8 new cases per million per day, as well, we can also continue to have a life and just clamp down occasionally as needed.

[/quote]

Belgium's death rate per capita is [u]double[/u] the U.S., with a case fatality rate that is 4 times ours.  Either they're doing a lousy job testing their population, or they're doing a incredibly lousy job with their health care system.  So I'd take those case rates with a very large grain of salt.  Further, their growth curve for cases is worse than the U.S. right now (which has actually flattened and started trending down. You probably wouldn't know this, because all of the people who were freaked out about the growth in cases a couple of weeks ago have stopped talking about it now.  They were telling us that "death is a lagging indicator."  Now that death counts have started ticking up (some places -- some places they haven't), they seem to have forgotten all about that "lagging indicator" stuff.

Don't get me wrong -- none of this is good, and we can help ourselves by taking precautions. However, this illusion that there is some magic thing that is going to make this all go away is not helpful, and has got to stop. [/quote]

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