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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]What elite defenses has Madison played other than Robinson and Stab?[/quote]

How many are there?[/quote]

Same data -

Opponent-adjusted defensive rating

Robinson — 75.79
Madison — 75.72
Independence — 74.61
Oakton — 72.13
Yorktown — 71.42
Battlefield — 69.18
Chantilly — 66.36

Raw goals allowed per game in the same sample

Madison: 3.63
Robinson: 3.80
Independence: 3.80
Battlefield: 4.88
Oakton: 6.70
Yorktown: 7.60
Chantilly: 11.09[/quote]

How did you come up with these? Why is the offensive score in the teens and the defensive scores in the 60s and 70s. [/quote]

I used the LN data on the 6a teams ratings, then took the game by game results of the top teams in discussion and came up with an opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive scale, but I didn't take the time to make them consistent. I should have done that so the O and D versions were more comparable, based on goals.

I've done that now.

Adj Off, best to worst

Independence — 16.89
Yorktown — 13.60
Robinson — 13.56
Madison — 11.83
Chantilly — 11.29
Battlefield — 11.14
Oakton — 9.31

Adj Def, best to worst (lower goals allowed is better)

Robinson — 2.74
Madison — 2.80
Independence — 3.91
Oakton — 6.39
Yorktown — 7.10
Battlefield — 7.43
Chantilly — 12.16[/quote]

What’s an opponent adjusted scale and why have the team orders changed again lol

This is a mess[/quote]

Do you not understand the difference between offense and defense?[/quote]

Lololol really man

You wrote:

Quickly threw together an opponent-adjusted offensive rating:

Independence — 17.66
Yorktown — 13.55
Battlefield — 13.12
Robinson — 13.01
Chantilly — 12.37
Madison — 11.50
Oakton — 9.22

Shorthand from this version of the model:

Elite scoring case: Independence
Very strong: Yorktown, Battlefield, Robinson
Solid but less explosive: Chantilly, Madison
More grindy: Oakton

Then you wrote:

Adj Off, best to worst

Independence — 16.89
Yorktown — 13.60
Robinson — 13.56
Madison — 11.83
Chantilly — 11.29
Battlefield — 11.14
Oakton — 9.31

Just making stuff up

[/quote]

Look, you didn't read and you're dumb.

" I didn't take the time to make them consistent. I should have done that so the O and D versions were more comparable, based on goals."

I literally explained this to you. I can't effing spoon feed the luddites because you can't read. You don't understand math and numbers, but also you can't read. [/quote]

So the offense from one post to the next is inconsistent because you made them based on goals…to make them comparable with the defense? Ok. How does that work when not every team has played the same number of games? [/quote]

It's an average. It accounts for the number of games played.[/quote]

If the first rendition wasn’t based on goals, what was the scoring?[/quote]

It wasn't expressed as a measure of goals, it was an index rating (hence being in the 60s and 70s). I made it consistent so people could look at the two measures (averages, basically, that are opponent adjusted) to make it more apples to apples.  [/quote]

Not the defense, the offense - why is the order different? What data caused teams to reorder if it wasn’t goals per game? [/quote]

People who refuse to accept this stuff will continue to make the same stupid points like "It doesn't account for playing a road game on an even numbered date that's a Tuesday" or "It doesn't know that the Junior LSM just broke up with his girlfriend" which are, to be polite. moronic comments.

The first (quick) method I came up with was a rough weighted scoring index. The second was, as part of making defense and offense measures the same, on a goals-equivalent vs an average opponent version.

The first method was done quickly, and was a looser weighted index. The second method was more rigorous on an "expected goals" basis, which is the more fully opponent adjusted method.

If you are one of the few people who are legitimately asking questions -

I used an opponent-adjusted goals model. For each game, I took the team’s goals scored and adjusted them based on how strong the opponent was relative to the average opponent in the sample, then averaged those adjusted values across games. That gives an estimate of how many goals the team would score per game against an average opponent, rather than just using raw goals per game, which can be distorted by schedule strength.

For offense, in plain English:

if you scored 10 goals on a defense stronger than average, that performance gets adjusted up
if you scored 10 goals on a defense weaker than average, that performance gets adjusted down[/quote]

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