Reply to SAT/ACT single most predictive factor at Yale

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator. [/quote]

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd

https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.
[/quote]

Where is the credible research there?  A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position.  If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking.  Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.[/quote]

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools[/quote]

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds. [/quote]

Dartmouth and Yale seem to be saying that TO does NOT help those from less advantaged backgrounds because they are going TO when below 25th percentile, even though their still strong score in context would actually better help support their admission. [/quote]

I don’t understand how a score that is <25% could be considered strong?

Also students from disadvantaged families (first gen/ non English speaking immigrant/
Below poverty line etc.) don’t have money to obtain tutoring prep and keep retaking tests.

However that discrepancy is less pronounced for GPAs although even that plays in for the number of AP
Exams the students can afford to take.

A high GPA is a better indicator for students having the grit to stay the course and graduate. Getting in is not the only goals but ability to graduate.
[/quote]

For top schools you need both.

For many schools not in the top 20 or 25, TO is here forever…
For the tippy top schools, look at the Reddit forum - r/collegeresults  - to see how the TO candidates did last year at top schools…

Lots of data out there.[/quote]

The title of thread is single most predictive factor - plenty of data suggests the single most predictive factor in college success is GPA - [/quote]

How is college success defined?[/quote]

Graduating with a decent GPA - hopefully placing them on a road to a job that pays the bills … [/quote]

That’s not success. Plenty English majors don’t get well paying jobs.

It’s being able to get a job and exceed the kind of life your parents had (or if already UC, continue that life)[/quote]

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