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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=BlueFredneck]Would Putin settle for a relationship with Ukraine similar to that which the USSR had with Finland during the Cold War?

Putin, I would hope, has no stomach for occupying Ukraine from Kiev on west, outside of some small area in SE Ukraine where pro-Russia sentiment runs strongest. Quite frankly, once he gets past Kiev, it will be a fight for national survival for the Ukrainians, and even east of Kiev, there's enough anti-Russian sentiment to make any wide-ranging occupation damned near impossible.

Would Lviv (heartland of the anti-Russian forces in Ukraine) be willing to accept a partition where the eastern part joins Russia/becomes like Kazakhstan and the western part goes down the NATO road that Albania and North Macedonia have chosen? 
 
Likewise, I hope Biden doesn't want Ukraine as it is currently constituted to join NATO. Ukraine's per capita GDP is 70% that of Albania (the next-poorest NATO member) and under half that of Turkey. Its corruption is near-endemic, and domestic opinion is really and truly split.

Albania has historically been more supportive of the US than the US (a class in which I'd put Poland and the Baltic Republics, and in Asia Vietnam and the Philippines.) Ukraine on the other hand is split between a western half that's in the more supportive of the US than the US, and an eastern half that wants to be like Kazakhstan or part of Russia itself.

In the 2004 election, Yanukovich got over 85% of the vote in the currently occupied zones, and Yushchenko got a similar percentage in far western Ukraine. I have my doubts that sentiments have really changed.

A lot of left-establishment and right-establishment Westerners express shock that people around the world would prefer alternative leadership models. A lot of left-populist and right-populist Westerners express shock that other people around the world would prefer Western-style liberal democracy. [/quote]

Except that's what the status quo was.  Clearly that's the only feasible scenario.  Ukraine can only exist as a buffer state.  The problem, I think, is that Russia doesn't respect them at all.  Until Ukraine has its version of the Winter War this is going to be a bloody mess.

As for East versus West Ukraine.  My assumption has been that if Russia crosses the Dneiper then it's WW3.  If it formally annexes Donbas then maybe nothing happens.  The whole question is what will the response be if we're talking more than Donbas but less than Kyiv?[/quote]
WW III with what?  The tyranny of distance precludes a build-up of ground forces needed to fight a war against a need peer, to push someone off a massive piece of ground.  A build-up of ground forces would just confirm Putin’s worry of western expansion.  The air environment is entirely not permissive.  The sea component’s picture is better but ships cannot occupy and defend land.  I suppose you could use the Marines to kick the door in as is their mission, but then what?  The marines have just turned in all their tanks and most of their artillery and without the Army’s follow on armored fist they’re toast.  I guess we could fight WW III with nuclear weapons but for the sake of the Ukrainians?  Nah.  War is not worth it.[/quote]

The chances of Ukraine crossing over into NATO if Russia crosses the Dneiper are very high.  If NATO gets attacked then WW3 happens. It wouldn't be a war of choice.  It wouldn't be good for anyone but it is what would likely happen.  That scenario is not in our control.  It's up to Russia.[/quote]
DP. I get what you are saying but didn’t anyone learn anything from WW1?[/quote]

Nope.  Those people are all dead.  Generational cycles or Kondratiev waves, take your pick.  All the flashpoint areas of this conflagration have been bathed in blood for every generation except the ones currently in charge.  Boomers in Russia.  Gen X in Ukraine.  The millennials in cyberspace.  [/quote]

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