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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]What are the chances you will get in if you were deferred? How many deferrals turn into acceptances?[/quote]

I would like to know as well. Is a deferral from UVA basically a NO? [/quote]

According to Dean J,‘s blog, last year 8% of deferrals were offered admission. It was 12% the year before. [/quote]

[b]The 8,000 deferrals are now in the same pot as the 16,000 RD applications. Not many spots left...[/quote][/b]

23:13 on page ten above ran the numbers:

48,000 - 32,000 between ED/EA = 16,000 RD

I imagine they lose many to other schools’ ED and ED2.

You forgot about the deferred applicants from ED and EA who will get a second shot in the RD round. There are 8000 deferred applicants. For another file review, these students have to file a form. If half the deferred students elect a review, that’s 4000 more applicants in the RD round, in addition to the 16,000 RD applicants, or 20,000 total.[/quote]

Hard to know how many of the defers will withdraw, too. Did you notice that the defers have to fill something out to confirm that they want to be reconsidered? [/quote]

[b]Yes. So how many more admits will there be ?[/b] [/quote]

That's a very good question and one I can't answer.  Usually, the institution uses an algorithm provided by expensive consultants to assess how many EA students can be expected to accept as well as how many RD students will show up (I'm assuming all the ED students show up minus a fraction for those who defer or have a personal reason for not matriculating).  I understand UVA is aiming for a class of 3750, which sounds about right.  What they can't assess well this year is how many will accept EA or even RD offers because COVID has thrown a monkey wrench into college admissions.  UVA does not want a situation like VT had about three years ago when it tried out a new algorithm and wound up with far too many students accepting.  Immediately after that, UVA started ED, because it, too, needed to have a better sense of how many students would accept offers (the "yield).  Prior to Covid, there was a lot of nervousness about the fact that SLACs and other privates were pricing themselves out of reach for even UMC.  So more and admitted more students were accepting UVA than in the past because of its value.  Then Covid came and many families found their savings depleted, lost jobs or were laid off.  That makes all the publics look a LOT more attractive to a financially-stressed family.  Bearing that in mind, the wisest course of action for UVA is to admit a smaller RD class than usual and then wait and see how many EA and RD accept.  They need to control because they can't handle more than the 3750 - it's not a school where dorm trailers can be brought in or hotels leased out (easily).  Once the office knows that answer (May 1), then it will turn to the monstrous [b]deferral[/b] list.
[/quote]

Sounds about right. Except on May 1st, they will turn to a wait list not deferral list. [/quote]

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