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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]My experience is Naviance was quite accurate.  But, this was for schools with large numbers of applicants.

What happens is you need to look at scattergrams and not just the 25-75% numbers (or what they call a safety).

The scattergrams show you how people with a certain GPA and test scores did on admissions.  From that, you can get an idea of the probability of admissions.

As an example, at some elite schools, even with near perfect grades and SATs, there were a lot more rejected than accepted (even if you were about the 75%)...

But for the schools like Virginia Tech, at DD's school, almost all above 4.0 were admitted.  Between 3.8 and 4.0 there was a drop off, and below 3.8, few were admitted.  SAT scores did not matter.

Similar trends existed, but with different numbers, for UVA, W&M, and JMU.

(DD was in the 60-70% number for W&M, the 30% number for UVA, and the 99% number for VT); She was admitted to W&M and VT, chose W&M.

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Can you help a newbie understand all this? I look at Naviance with my DD and see that scatterplot (for MCPS) and see green checks for kids who were admitted and red xes for those who weren't. In the schools she's considering "fit" or "match" schools, she's in there with the rest of the kids... But.... What are we missing? Some kids get in with lower stats than hers, some higher.  She's always right in the mix. But maybe that's meaningless? I also worry that Naviance is steering us wrong. Rice, for example, is listed as a "match" according to Naviance, but then people on DCUM talk about it as a reach for a mid 1400s kid with excellent grades and good ECs. ? I'd love more info/intel from those who've been through this![/quote]

There are factors beyond grades. Rice is admits about 11.1% of applicants.  That probably means there is no grade / GPA where more than 30% of the students are admitted.  
At the top schools, the assumption is nearly all A's, and good test scores. Without that they will not consider you.  But, even with the scores, that means you are considered, not that you are in.  
So, the scatter grams show you how similar students did.  If about 30% around your child are green, and 70% are red, that means 30% are accepted.  It is a reach to near reach for your daughter.

The reality is there is no difference in a 1500 and 1600 SAT in terms of the ability to do the work.  So, the colleges do not care that much (once it is above a number).  They will look at what they want in the freshman class.   For example, I am sure Anthony Rendon -- who attended Rice on a Baseball Scholarship -- did not have all A's, and 1500+ SATs.  But, he is one of the best third basemen -- a talent they needed.

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