Reply to FCPS Ready to Screw Poorer/GenEd Kids Again

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Isn't the base part of LJ already past the "tipping point" that a PP keeps bringing up?  I mean, if the current FARMS rate is 43%... we know that the AAP part of the school is not 43% FARMS.  So, if that chunk of LJ has fewer FARMS kids, then the base school must have more than 43% FARMS kids in order for the total to be 43% FARMS.

So, those base school kids are already passed the tipping point.  TBH, when we were looking for a house, I didn't want a house zoned for LJ (regardless of the HS being Oakton) b/c I had a kid going into MS.  While I wasn't too concerned about the AAP side of the house, I was concerned about my non-AAP MS kid and what the school environment would be like for her.  I wasn't willing to put her in a school with no friends where 50% or more of the kids were getting FARMS.  It might have been o.k., or it might not... but I wasn't willing to take the chance given that she would be coming in knowing no one.

So, I do agree that people look at demographics when buying.  I also wasn't willing to buy in Falls Church HS.  It wasn't just LJ where  the demographics for non-AAP kids were already past the so-called "tipping point".     [/quote]

Your analysis proves too much.  Some already avoided the area because of the MS/HS demographics, and even more (including those who were OK with a high school with about 50% FARMS so long as their kid could attend a lower FARMS MS with an AAP program) will do so in the future.  But Jackson was pretty close to 40% FARMS for a long time, and it's quite likely that it's going to see substantial flight over the next 5-10 years.  Again, look at Poe, where after a similar boundary change the FARMS rate went from 52% to 72% in about 7 years. 
[/quote]

I'm just pointing out that the day to day reality for the kids in the base part of the school was the experience of being past the "tipping point."  Yes, to your point, perhaps some buyers weren't aware of that and thought that they were pre-tipping point. So, maybe the housing market wasn't yet seeing LJ as beyond the TP.  Some, like me, already saw it for what it was (on the non-AAP side).  So, while the housing market may (or may not) make an adjustment, as a practical matter, LJ's base school experience has been past that point.  Some people were still willing to buy in that zone and were happy with it.... even if it was past-TP.    I think the market may have already "baked in" the post-TP experience for people who did not have AAP kids in the LJ zone.  [/quote]

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