Reply to Does anyone else believe the impending financial crash will be bigger than 2008-2009?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote] All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.[/quote]

The market is currently irrational, acting as if everything is fine, while every indicator of a bubble is flashing red warning signs. I think people are trading on hype right now, there’s still
Money to be made short term but the new and revised  (adp) job numbers (cause we no longer can get reliable BLS data) show significant slow down and the tariffs are having a growing an effect. Most likely recession and possibly a steep downward turn in market. Meanwhile we are bailing out argentina to bail out Rob Citrine  and pay to play politics are the name of the game. Fascist corruption can continue to generate wealth for a while for some (authoritarian capitalism is a thing) but always at the greater expense and foundational stability is compromised. [/quote]

I would flip around what you said --- almost every indicator is not flashing red.  Almost everything looks good.  Slowing but looking good.  Politics is shading people's views.  And politics for the most part does not matter.  Yes slowing but not really retreating either.  Not stagnant.  Tariffs have not had an impact yet almost at all.  In my view they will not going forward.  They are stupid, will not work, but are mostly harmless.  We are bailing out Argentina to stable a region that may go bad -- not politics -- good policy.  The rest of your comments show how you are impacted by the politics.  Things are not booming now but they are fine and healthy.[/quote]

What news sources are you reading to give you that perspective? Do you think employment numbers are good? How about inflation? How about the value of the dollar? Because most “mainsteam media”, which I am concerned you would denigrate, are underscoring that red lights are flashing. China isn’t buying soy beans. Auto loans are in bad shape. This isn’t about “politics clouding heads”, this is about reality. The stock market is on essentially a tech meth high at the moment. Once this data center/ai/hpc thing bursts in value and tariffs are felt more, we are looking at hard times.

I am trading companies like BITF, coreweave, lam research, intel as well. I am wrapped up in that bubble. But I am also not doing that for the long term in my taxable account. I am swing trading and stashing most profits in gold bullion ETFs waiting for the inevitable crash. I think you are secretly focused on politics and operate in a world where the coverage you’re reading is in fact biased in a bullish way. I think you’re insulated from actual conditions.[/quote]

Employment numbers are steady after years of explosive growth.  Inflation is slightly and only slightly high but low compared to the last several years.  Dollar is doing what it does.  Not an issue to focus on at the moment.  Weak dollar can have benefits.  Who cares about soy beans except a few farmers.  That is not a major part of our economy.  Auto loans are not in bad shape -- There is some pull back but again long before a flashing red light.  I only read and watch mainstream media.  But if you actually read what is there it is flash over substance.  Substance is still solid.  I am a democrat and oppose the president but the facts are the facts.[/quote]

This is such cope. That or you just don’t read enough. Employment numbers were revised down to -3,000 from 54,000 last month. And they’ll keep getting revised down each quarter.

You should also be aware of this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-27/trump-s-bls-firing-economy-spurs-investment-by-private-data-firms?embedded-checkout=true

I’m trying to help you buddy. You have this rosy outlook not supported by any real facts.[/quote]

Yes and that is solid.  Real facts are good.  People who follow politics will get killed here.  And no tarrifs have not impacted the economy in any meaningful way.  No one cares about soybean farmers.[/quote]

You don’t think the market cares about a $12.5 billion loss? Mmkay. [/quote]

Also someone with no understanding of how farms work.  Soybeans aren't solely grown by a small number of farmers.  They are a rotation crop that many (most?) grain farmers in the midwest grow in order to rebalance nitrogen in their fields after corn (which strips nitrogen).  Anyone who has been there in late summer/September would know this because you see corn and soybeans EVERYWHERE.  It's also a disaster maybe for next year if enough farmers don't get paid to make their seed/equipment investments for the 2026 season.  Maybe corn might jump in price for next years harvest because of reduced supply next year.  Does "no one care" about corn farmers?  In the United States?

The lack of basic understanding of how these systems work, and the consequences of these actions, are exactly why we are well and truly...you get it.  But of course PP doesn't.[/quote]

12.5 billion loss is not a rounding error.  And no one cares about the corn farmers either.[/quote]

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