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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Emerson poll has Trump +10 in Iowa. But feel free to cling to whatever poll makes you happier.[/quote]

Yes but Selzer is THE Iowa pollster. Emerson polls nationally and is parachuting in.

I'm really struggling with this because the gulf is so wide, but I trust Selzer on Iowa over anyone else.

Her result is still within a standard margin of error, making them effectively tied. But if true, that is a huge swing. Iowa should not be in play if Trump is winning.

Also I'm still reviewing details of the poll but the most interesting result: it has women 65+ voting Harris 2-1. That's a huge deal because that's a very reliable voting bloc-- older people vote at high rates and older women vote more reliably than men.[/quote]

You can trust Selzer and still recognize the margin of error in her own poll could have Trump winning Iowa by 3.4.[/quote]

Which would be a horrible result for Trump. It means he loses the election and goes to prison.[/quote]

Yep. This. If Trump narrowly wins Iowa it means the other swing states go to Harris. [/quote]

Uh no, it doesn’t. What a bizarre argument.[/quote]

Okay let me try to explain more to get through your MAGA head. Of course it’s not causal. But it means that the polls suggesting it’s close in the other states are far off, too. It means that older white women will be coming out in droves for Harris. Iowa being this close is beacon for the rest of the Midwest. [/quote]

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