Reply to All these rejections and deferrals reported on DCUM and CC are shocking and discouraging

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]My 3.7/1300s (and submitted) kid did well. My feeling is that some people are overestimating their odds given the stats, [b]AND not playing the ED game if they are in the fortunate position to do so[/b]. ED1 to a reach, fine. If it doesn’t work out and it’s a deferral, ED2 somewhere more reasonable for gods sake unless your kid is satisfied with a couple safeties they hopefully got into EA. Don’t hang around waiting on the ED1 deferral which is likely NOT to happen. Play the odds. Our kid wanted to wait out RD from the ED1, we and her counselor strongly advised ED2 to her 2nd choice, and she got in and was THRILLED. Just my two cents from our experience. [/quote]

Love how you throw that in there. As you know, many people are shut out of this due to not being in a position to do so. [/quote]

Have you run the NPC?  If the college is not affordable, it is such whether ED or RD, so there is no reason you cannot apply ED if there is a clear first choice.[/quote]

It's not really that black and white.

And furthermore[b], if it's not affordable at all[/b], they are shut out altogether. The point is that the MONEY matters. A lot. Even if they are smart enough, capable enough, and ambitious enough to want a top school. You all come on here like is so super easy for everyone to just apply full pay at the top schools.

It isn't. And that should be acknowledged as a problem more widely in this country. Esp. when going to a low ranked school can keep you perpetually in the plebe class. Look at all the smug opinions of the various schools on this board . . . . [/quote]

The thing is everyone is subject to the same financial aid formula.  So you don't need to be full pay--you just need to save what is estimated to be reasonable based on your income/assets.  And there is room for exacerbating expenses like medical expenses to be figured in.  You may not like that number, but we're all subjected to the same financial assessment.  ED doesn't require being full pay--it requires being able to pay what you are estimated to need based on a federal and sometimes also institutional formula.  We're all expected to save some, cash flow some and borrow some.

And there's little evidence that going to a low-ranked school holds you back.  Students that could get into a T20 school have similar outcomes if they go to even a much lower ranked school.  On average the only real social mobility factor from college ranking is if you are low-income and go to a top school.  Otherwise it really is the student not the school.[/quote]

You are still making the point. "You just need to save." Oh, is that all? [/quote]

or get rid of the notion of "top 25 or bust" mentality and search for excellent schools you can afford.  Where you go does NOT matter, it's what you do when you get there.  If you need merit, it exists in large amounts at many schools in the T50-100 range.  Find a private that gives good merit and your kid is at/above the 75% for stats.  The merit will flow.  
My own kid 26/3.5UW/no APs got 35% of tuition in merit at 3 schools in the 70-90 range (50th percentile for stats) and 66% of tuition at one near 120 (85% for stats).  My kid could have attended the 120 ranked private school for ~28K/year, but chose the 80 ranked for ~$40K/year.   So my kid who was not "high stats" got excellent merit.  Had we been actually searching we could have found even better merit schools in the 100+.  
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