Reply to Why is the Foxhall Community Citizens Association scared of public school children?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Can anyone use their crystal ball to foretell what all this means for the Key trajectory and Hardy/Wilson over the upcoming years? [/quote]

The wildcard is how the pandemic ends up affecting enrollment, but based on pre-pandemic trends:

Wilson is on an unsustainable trajectory, 2600 kids by 2026. The only practical way to prune enrollment is to drop a feeder, and that feeder is going to be Hardy. So the most likely scenario is that the Macarthur School is a new high school fed only by Hardy. Hardy will be fed by all of its current feeders plus a new Foxhall school.

MacArthur High will be the riches, whitest high school in the city. It will have a community that's been together since middle school, in many cases since elementary. It will be a good school academically. It will be small by DCPS standards and will struggle to offer a full selection of course offerings and extracurriculars. It probably won't have a football team and its sports will probably be generally weak.

Families in the Hardy feeder pattern are very sensitive to quality, as it is about half of them go private. Starting in about third grade the Hardy feeders see erosion as families leave for private. Having a boutique destination high school will buttress Hardy, and as Hardy improves the feeder schools will increase their capture rate. All of the feeder schools will get an enrollment bump.

This is all assuming that the pandemic doesn't radically change things. And that DCPS doesn't screw things up. [/quote]

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