Reply to APS elementary planning initiative called off

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I just watched the segment from the meeting in question. It didn't so much seem like they were trying to make all of the decisions this fall so much as get a map of where things are headed to help with the decision this fall. I think it will be good to see a full map of what the boundaries will look like in 2021 with all the schools online and no option program location changes. That should be fairly revealing as to whether we need to revisit the location review or not. [/quote]

I don't think too many people question that a location review is needed (or at the very least would be beneficial), the problem is that people have different views on what the goals and priorities of the review should be, so how much of an appetite does the SB have to wade through those battles.[/quote]

Location review is a non-starter.  When you start moving programs and essentially closing schools (such as Nottingham was on the docket), then you get a hug political turnout with public outrage, and most other schools are sympathetic to not closing schools so its a widespread issue.

It only makes sense to make option programs at schools that are severely under enrolled (as a co-neighborhood program and slowly roll out the neighbor population) or new schools (such as Reed, but SB already promised that to the neighborhood so who knows if that is feasible).

So the staff should just cut the idea of location changes now, and just make a plan for 2021 for ASFS/McKinely so schools can plan accordingly.

Does anyone know if Taylor/Jamestown transfer to ASFS will get to stay until 2021?[/quote]

Location review isn't a non-starter, the SB just has to have the fortitude to make it happen.

Dual neighborhood/option schools won't happen, the SB make the specific determination to unwind that at Drew because it wasn't working well. Further, there are no option programs that are undercapacity, so the only way to make new dual programs would be to drastically slash the enrollment of those programs, and there are no neighborhood schools that are severely under-enrolled, the lowest capacities are around 93-94%, which is just below the level where the may start needing trailers depending on student population distribution.

I believe APS got rid of the team school system in last year's revision of the Option and Transfers policy. Siblings of children who were grandfathered after the change have been allowed to continue to transfer, but otherwise going forward Jamestown and Taylor will be treated the same as any other neighborhood school when it comes to transfers to ASFS. Given how overcrowded ASFS is, I don't think we'll be seeing that school open for neighborhood transfers any time soon.[/quote]

The questions was if they remove some planning units from ASFS to accommodate the Cherrydale neighborhood, such as moving Rosslyn to Long Branch, would the existing transfers from Taylor and Jamestown be allowed to stay, while in-zone families from Rosslyn have to transfer out, for example? Or does a new boundary process kind of reset the transfer slate and everyone has to go back home school?[/quote]

My recollection is that historically kids who transferred in via neighborhood and other permitted transfers have been grandfathered into the schools and allowed to stay. Realistically, by 2021-22 we're going to be talking about a total of at most maybe 20 students still there via team/sibling transfers with a decreasing number at each grade level (so the majority will move on to middle school within a year or two), which means the impact of letting them stay is so trivial that there's not really a good reason to make them leave.[/quote]

There are currently 80 transfer students that are still at ASFS for the 2019 school year, assuming even just 30 have younger siblings, you are talking about an almost entire grades worth of students. If they stay but the in-bound students are transferred out, like Rosslyn to Long Branch, that will cause an uproar. They really need to use Buck property as swing space to get thru this demographic bulge and just table boundaries until 2021 when reed opens. [/quote]

We are talking about 2021-22, when the full redraw is expected to go into effect. At that point, assuming no one moves out of the county, there are 10 current team transfer students who will be in fifth grade and four who will be in fourth grade. Since they distincontinued the team transfer option, each new grade level has had roughly half the number of kids as the year before (the year ahead of those ten has 18 transfers). If that pattern holds, we're talking about 2021-22 having 10 fifth graders, four fourth graders, 2-3 third graders, 1-2 second graders, and maybe 1-2 kids between K and first. That's 18-21 kids *total* at ASFS as team transfer legacies spread across six grade levels. For 2022-23, we're talking about 8-11 students across five grade levels, and the year after that 4-7 spread across four grade levels. [/quote]

Did you read my post on transfers? I am saying don’t do anything until 2021 for exactly this reason — they are planning to make changes for 2019!!

I know most families would prefer not to leave, so they just need to manage this population; if they do kill the lower income Rosslyn neighborhoods and leave the Taylor transfers, there will be a riot. Better to just manage it for a couple of years and then rezone when transfer and siblings are out of pipeline (and there are a LOT of siblings, so you will still likely have more than 20 in 2021). [/quote]

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